How To Bet £20 ante-post on the Paddy Power Gold Cup

The weights for Saturday week’s £160,000 Paddy Power Gold Cup have yet to be revealed but we know more or less what the 36 entries will be allotted and now appeals as a good time to be having a punt on the Cheltenham feature.

It is surely no coincidence that nine of the past 15 winners of the race have boasted a rating between 143 and 148, while the last six victors have all had the benefit of a run beforehand – none of them winning in advance. Trainers have become adept at having horses ready to roll after absences but this is evidently a tough race to win first time out.

Those stats increase confidence in Ga Law, quoted at 10-1 by bet365. He seems certain to be weighted between that range and ran a stormer on his return at Aintree last week when a staying-on third in the Old Roan Chase.

The Jamie Snowden-trained six-year-old was closing down Riders Onthe Storm and Hitman at the finish and, but for an uncharacteristic blunder five out, might well have won. His accurate jumping is usually one of his assets and the mistake he made came when a rival drifted in front, looking to momentarily distract or blind him.

Ga Law was running off 142 that day and I’d imagine he can expect a rise of between 2lb-3lb given he was beaten only a length and a half. There is substance to the effort with the winner, well-handicapped on his best form, something of an Aintree specialist in his element when fresh and the smart runner-up placed in Grade One company on several occasions.

**Editor's note: To Andy's pleasant surprise, Ga Law has been left on the same mark of 142

Last year’s Paddy Power winner, Midnight Shadow, also finished third in the Old Roan beforehand, so Ga Law will be treading a tried-and-tested path.

Having missed all last campaign with a tendon problem, Ga Law is effectively a second-season chaser and, having had only six races over fences – and only eight in total under Rules – remains completely unexposed.

He was swift to make an impact as a novice, reeling off successive front-running wins at Fontwell, Exeter and Wincanton in taking style. He made it 3/3 with a flawless romp in the Grade Two Rising Star Novices’ Chase and was not disgraced when subsequently placed in two more graded races – including at the highest level behind Allmankind and Hitman in the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase despite the drop to 2m being against him.

His handicap mark looked lenient heading into the Old Roan given the level of his form but instead of being allowed to bowl along at the head of affairs, as he has done in the past, his connections opted to hold him up, perhaps wary that he may be gassy and inclined to burn himself out. He took a healthy grip through the first half of the race, hinting he wanted to get on with things, but it didn’t stop him finishing off strongly.

That opens more doors for Ga Law in terms of tactics, although it would be no surprise if connections revert to riding him more forward at Cheltenham. Positive tactics can often be rewarded at Prestbury Park, especially when the ground is not deep.

Forecasting what the going will be like at this stage is tricky but Ga Law has been versatile regards underfoot conditions. He will be having his first run at Cheltenham but there’s nothing to suggest he will not take to the challenges that the course presents and Snowden’s horses have been in fabulous form this autumn.

The bounce factor is a slight niggle but you cannot have everything. If it could be guaranteed he will build on his Aintree run, then I’ve little doubt he would be a much shorter price. Snowden saddled Present View to finish a close third in the 2014 Paddy Power and reports Ga Law to have taken his Aintree exertions in his stride.

Whoever travels over from Ireland is sure to attract attention, although the only Irish-trained winner this century has been Tranquil Sea in 2009.

Willie Mullins has the well-fancied Fan De Blues entered, although this gelding doesn’t seem to have many secrets and will be on a career-high mark after an emphatic win on heavy ground at Cork last time. I wouldn’t go overboard about that form and keep in mind that he finished behind French Dynamite in a competitive handicap at the Punchestown Festival in April and is likely to be much worse off at the weights.

French Dynamite is himself an intriguing runner after winning over hurdles on his return this month and is respected. It’s good to see Mouse Morris with a smart horse on his hands once more and give yourself a slap on the back if you can remember the last time he saddled a winner in Britain. It was Rule The World in the 2016 Grand National. My nagging doubt about French Dynamite is that all his best form has been at right-handed Thurles.

Rather than put all my cash on Ga Law, I’ll also be having a saver on the Kerry Lee-trained Demachine, who is 16-1 across the board.

He lacks a recent run but, in his case, that’s a plus because it’s now pretty clear by now that he needs to be fresh to reproduce his best. He won on his return the season before last and also shaped with great promise on his comeback last term in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury before palpably not getting home. Then, after a four-month break and wind op, he won a good race when dropped back in trip at Uttoxeter in late May.

Demachine was pushed up 4lb to a mark of 140 for that win but, like Ga Law, he’s lightly raced over fences and still appeals as being on a fair mark. A good test at the Paddy Power trip is what he wants and Lee knows what it takes to win the race, having landed the 2019 renewal with Happy Diva.

£17 win on Ga Law at 10-1 with bet365

£3 win on Demachine at a general 16-1