Day two at Aintree: big-race trends and tips

Whilst a quick turnaround from the Cheltenham Festival has sometimes proven a barrier to success at the Festival, that hasn’t been the case in the Mildmay Novices' Chase (1.45) that opens the action on Friday as all of the last 12 winners had run within the previous 30 days.

Furthermore, battle-hardened runners have done well in this 3m1f contest, with every one of those winners having had at least four runs earlier in the season. That counts against Dancing City, despite Willie Mullins’ charge having won at this meeting last year, but in the favour of expensive purchase Caldwell Potter who scored at the Cheltenham Festival on his fourth start of the campaign. Is Paul Nicholls stepping him up in trip here to find out if he has a Gold Cup horse for next season?

Favourite Handstands has been intentionally kept on the sidelines since the start of February, but will need to defy the trends if he is to take this.

Like Caldwell Potter, Wade Out is part-owned by Sir Alex Ferguson who will be hoping to win on Merseyside once more in the William Hill Handicap Hurdle (2.40).

The progressive novice Wade Out meets some of the key trends criteria (including age and weight carried) but only four of the last 14 winners were in the top three in the betting and only three won last time out. Also, 10 of the last 11 winners were rated 130 or higher whereas Wade Out is only rated 128. Sandown runners-up Wreckless Eric and Off The Jury are the ones who tick all of the boxes.

As you might expect, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle has proven a good marker for the Top Novices’ Hurdle (2.55), with nine of the last 12 winners having been beaten in the Cheltenham race on their previous start. That could tip the balance in the favour of Romeo Coolio and Salvator Mundi, third and fifth behind Kopek Des Bordes last month.

With Jonbon odds-on in the Melling Chase to avenge his Champion Chase defeat, the more appealing race for punters might be the Randox Supporting Prostate Cancer UK Topham Chase.

Although favourites have a woeful record – 2008 winner Gwanako was the last (joint) favourite to win the race – the Topham has seen plenty of multiple winners over the years including Always Waining (2010-2012) and Ultragold (2017 and 2018).

Last year’s victor Arizona Cardinal isn’t back to defend his crown, but runner-up James Du Berlais is back for another crack having looked all over the winner when two lengths clear at ‘The Elbow’ 12 months ago. He’s only 1lb higher here and fancied to go one better.