Horse racing tips: Dave Nevison's best bets for Thursday

By Dave Nevison@nevisondave
Wed 27 Jan 2021

I am going to stick with the All-weather for a couple of days given that the freezing conditions look set to give way to heavy rain.

I have three bets here who will all be well-fancied in fairly small fields, and I might just combine them in a win treble and hope they all click.

2.15 Southwell: Daafr

Anthony Brittain has transformed his stable’s performance in recent seasons and a major factor in his success has been his decision to target the early part of the year to have his largely moderate string at its peak.

He is obviously an advocate of striking while the iron is hot too, and there could not be a better example than Daafr who is bidding for his third win in just over a week.

Daafr carries a double penalty here but is still running in a 0-75 handicap having been successful in a 0-80 last week. This is perhaps more competitive than the two he has won - and there are some in-form horses up against him - but he was impressive last time and will get the race run to suit.

I have my own code when it comes to these modest handicappers who get on a roll, and I believe they can often win three on the spin but that the effort often catches up on them when they attempt four. Hopefully that will be the case here.

3.20 Southwell: Bay Of Naples

His penalty for victory last time is more than offset by George Bass, a good 7lb-claimer who has done this column a favour already.

Tried in cheekpieces, Bay Of Naples made the running for the first time since joining the Michael Herrington yard and it definitely paid off. There isn’t another obvious pace setter in this field and I can’t see why he cannot execute the same tactics successfully once more.

Richard Fahey booked Bass under a penalty for Star of St James to make all and win here recently, and it does look as though Herrington has taken note.

3.55 Southwell: Ornate

He might not be capable of showing up in Group One sprints these days, but he is stil a very decent sprinter and has not run in such an uncompetitive event as this in a very long time.

Has never been out of the frame in a few runs at Southwell and returns to the track for the first time in a while here. One reason I suspect his record is so good at this track is that he invariably leads, so avoids kickback.

He only gave way close home to a bang in-form and well-handicapped runner at Newcastle last time. He will get the lead here I am sure, as he is just a faster horse than the other potential pace-setters in the field, and I don’t feel they will be strong enough to overhaul him at the finish.

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