Our website tipster has a strong view on the JCB Triumph Hurdle market and has three fancies for all the action at Catterick on Tuesday, live on Racing TV.
I thoroughly enjoyed Saturday in the new space-age Racing TV studio and I hope viewers are enjoying the coverage.
I have read more sober summations than mine over the weekend about Tritonic’s win in the Adonis, particularly regarding his time after the second-last compared to the handicap over two and a half miles.
But even with that factored in, I still think he should be favourite for the Triumph. He was rated a very solid 99 on the Flat and could have been higher in my view - far higher than the current favourite. I believe he will improve further on a track like Cheltenham, too.
On to Tuesday's action.
Jumping errors have impacted his chasing career, but I do think he has plenty in hand from his mark and is worth chancing over Catterick’s easier fences.
He was going well in front in the Borders National before Christmas and may well have won last time but for belting three-out in another decent Kelso handicap. If he had won either race, I feel his mark would have risen beyond the ceiling of race. Instead, his mark has dropped by 2lb.
He could show himself to be extremely well-in one day when his jumping holds together, and the easier the grade the more likely that will be. Trainer Sandy Thomson has been in solid form all season and I am expecting a good run, while this horse has been well-backed more than once this term - likely because he is felt to be better than his mark.
Of the rest, last year’s winner Ask Paddy could be his main rival and looks to be hitting form, but he is still rated 6lb higher than last year and may need dropping a tad more.
The only difference between this race and his win last week is the 7lb penalty, and there is no way that would have stopped him last time.
I am not going to desert him now as this track, trip and jockey clearly suit him very well. This looks a perfect opportunity to score again.
This should be the afternoon’s best bet, and only the five-month absence would concern me so I will be watching for any significant drift in the market.
He is down 4lb for his latest run over jumps when fourth in a 0-120 handicap hurdle at Newbury last January, and is now dropped into the 0-105 bracket at Catterick in a race which is some way below in terms of class.
Since then he has improved markedly in staying Flat handicaps, with two wins and thought good enough to run in a Cesarewitch where he did okay. He will be very well-suited by going up four furlongs in trip over hurdles than previously and one of the best conditionals around in Bryan Carver is booked to ride. It is significant he has another entry in the coming days, as I believe a sequence may well be expected.
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