Race iQ view: the "real" Jonbon can bounce back at Aintree

The weather in Liverpool is warm and windy this week and conditions will keep drying out, which will place the emphasis upon speed and strong jumping. For this reason, Jet To Vegas looks overpriced in the Top Novices’ Hurdle (14:55) for the Lucinda Russell team. 

When he won the Grade Two novices’ hurdle at Kelso last month, he sat close to the pace set by Vanderpool and helped ensure that they went a strong gallop in front. His average entry speed of 31.68 mph was the fastest posted by any horse on the day, including those running in the couple of two-mile hurdle contests that followed. 

He was also incredibly slick in the air meaning that he was taking lengths out of his rivals at each of his obstacles and, despite jumping right, recorded a Jump Index of 9.1, which was also the highest of the meeting. In fact, it was the best jumping performance recorded by any horse over that weekend. Considering it gained him an advantage of nearly 10 lengths on the runner-up through jumping alone, it’s hard to argue that it must have played a part in landing the victory. 

He demonstrated an impressive ability to travel and jump at pace as well as maintain that effort to the line, which will be crucial here. It will be exciting to see how he fares when stepping up in grade again now.

In the Melling Chase, I also think Jonbon remains the horse to beat despite letting favourite backers down at Cheltenham. 

In the Champion Chase he threw his chance away from costly jumping errors - notably one that cost him 9mph at a crucial stage in the race. He never found any sort of jumping rhythm and forfeited lengths to his rivals over nine of the 13 fences. His Jump Index of 6.4 out of 10 is also one of the lowest we've ever seen from him and fully reflects that we simply didn't see the best of Jonbon that day. 

The early stages of the race and the pace at which the leaders set off proved crucial. Having missed the break from a standing start, he approached the second fence at a rapid 34.8 mph, which is over 1mph quicker than he had previously approached any fence at Cheltenham. As trainer Nicky Henderson said after, Jonbon was on his head right from the start. 

He won’t have the same problem in the Melling Chase, run over half a mile further than the Champion Chase. He also gets on very well at Aintree, having achieved both of his best Jump Index scores at this track. I strongly fancy that we’ll see the real Jonbon again here.