Guineas Festival review: what the RaceiQ data told us plus eye-catchers

It was a brilliant start to the British Classic season with both Notable Speech and Elmalka putting their stamps on their respective Guineas. We highlighted both of them before the race as horses that had produced high Finishing Speed Percentages (FSP) in their runs prior to this meeting, but what did the data tell us after the race? 

Both horses impressed with the versatility they showed by producing such classy performances off a very strong pace and they had excelled in their previous runs by quickening off fairly steady paces, so it was really interesting seeing them outstay their rivals like they did. 

Notable Speech had shown an impressive turn of foot to land his races at Kempton through the winter, especially when winning there in April as he had found himself in a nearly impossible position turning in but used his pace to get his head in front and recorded and FSP of 115.02%. 

In the Guineas, the race turned into a real test of stamina which found out most of the field. This is reflected by the fact that Notable Speech had the highest FSP of 97.11%. It also backs up how impressive it is that he can use his speed regardless of how a race is run. 

Elmalka’s FSP of 100.46% also suggests that her jockey timed her challenge to perfection. She was settled right at the back, avoiding the strong pace set by Star Style, and stayed on very strongly to the line. 

Aurelien Lemaitre may have got some criticism for kicking too soon into The Dip, but the sectionals tell a different story. Ramatuelle never really quickened, the horses around her just fell away. In fact, the winner was quicker than Ramatuelle through every furlong except the first, so she possibly just paid the price for sitting too close to the pace at the start. 

In the QIPCO 2000 Guineas, the fastest furlong was actually recorded by the horse that finished last. Iberian pulled hard through the race and clocked an 11.01s furlong in the third furlong of the race. Based upon his previous form over seven furlongs, including his defeat of Rosallion at Doncaster last year, he looks one to keep an eye on back over a shorter trip. 

It was a similar picture in the QIPCO 1000 Guineas where most horses were fastest through their third furlong. The winner, Elmalka, was no exception here and posted a time of 11.13 through that furlong. It again backs up how versatile her speed is, considering how fast she is able to go and how long she is able to maintain it for. 

I introduced stride data before these races, and it was really interesting to see how each of the runners performed in these races. Notable Speech had the highest stride frequency in his race at 2.41 strides per second, and Elmalka had the third highest Frequency of the race at 2.37 strides per second. 

I believe this tells us two things; firstly, they went very fast, so the horses had to be able to operate like sprinters (have a high frequency), but they also had to be able to maintain it like they did. 

Going forwards, it suggests both winners are probably true milers. They may struggle over further as maintaining a stride frequency so fast when running over further will be use a lot of energy. 

A horse that caught my eye in the QIPCO 1000 Guineas was Tamfana. She was very unlucky in running and quickened up nicely once she got some space switched out wide. Her trainer, David Menuisier, is aiming her for the 1m2f Prix de Diane Longines next at Chantilly and her stride suggests this trip should be no problem. Despite the speed she showed, she was only operating with an average stride frequency of 2.28 strides per second, the fourth lowest in the field. 

This suggests that she is able to use her large stride (average of 7.73 metres) efficiently and could improve again for this step up in trip. 

One horse that performed exceptionally well at the meeting in almost all metrics was Twilight Calls in the Palace House Stakes. This horse completely fluffed his lines at the start of the race and that seemed to cost him any chance of getting back on terms in a very strongly run race. 

His break speed was the slowest of the whole field, taking 3.08 seconds to reach 20mph (the winner only took 2.51 seconds to reach 20mph). As well as the slow break, he took a long time to get into stride after that where they went so hard in front, and the sectionals suggest he was already lengths behind after a furlong. 

He then posted the quickest furlong (10.34 seconds) and the highest Finishing Speed Percentage (108.07%) of the whole meeting. This meant he completed the final two furlongs 0.59 seconds quicker than the winner, but it was just a shade too late. He is one to watch next time as long as he can get going a little better at the start. 

Hopefully you will have seen Racing TV’s Angus McNae using our Time Index on The Verdict, but I will explain it for those of you who are new to this. 

It is calculated by assessing a race time compared to the time we expect that race to be run in. It includes the effects of race class, course, distance and official going. We then allocate it a score out of ten to give us context about how much a race has over or underperformed on the clock compared to what we were expecting. A race run in the expected time would score around a 5 or 6. 

One horse that stood out to me was Caviar Heights. At first glance, it looked like he had profited from the rain falling, when the rest of the field finished very strung out behind him. Our Time Index suggests something different, though: 

As you can see, the races were performing how we would expect for good ground, with most of the races coming in around where we would expect. It also shows us that Caviar Heights’ race time backs up how visually impressive it was. 

His Time Index score of 7.54 turned out to be the highest of the whole meeting, suggesting that his race winning time was the most impressive of the three days, and we can assume he is a very smart horse. 

The field were strung out behind him, not because of the rain falling, but because he was so far superior of his rivals. It will be exciting to see what he does next. 

Get your Racing TV Quilted Jacket! Terms and conditions apply.