Geoffrey Riddle's Monday tips: Hurricane can blow them away

By Geoffrey Riddle@Louchepunter
Mon 20 Aug 2018

I feel a bit like Virat Kohli did last month.

The Indian batsman was hitting a few runs here and there until the first innings of the First Test against England at Edgebaston this month.

He was even dropped twice, but he suddenly found his groove and whacked England for 149 runs.

I have not been in the best tipping form in the past two weeks and have been scratching around putting up a string of seconds. I hope it all comes together for a big score on Monday.

It better do, because four days on the Knavesmire later this week awaits, and looking at the cards for the Welcome to Yorkshire Ebor Festival it would be a crying shame to not have a winner from the proposed fields there. They look incredible.

With Tony Calvin still away, I have had to divert my attention to Monday's action and have come up with four bets in an effort to get my eye back in.

2.50 Leicester – Dependable at a generally available 11-2:

There are only six wins spread between the seven runners of this fillies’ handicap, which is unlikely to take much winning.

That will be music to the ears of Mark Johnston, who will be hoping The Last Debutante can ge him over the line of Richard Hannon Snr's British record of most winners.

Dependable is the most lightly-raced of the runners, though, and caught the eye when staying on nicely with little encouragement last time over 10 furlongs at Windsor.

When you consider that was just her third run, which qualifies her for this handicap, she ran with immense credit and three furlongs out moved up fluidly. Callum Shepherd only guided her home and never gave his partner a hard time.

She is by Reliable Man, the 2011 French Derby and Prix Niel winner, so the step up to 12 furlongs is no given to suit but she should get a nice tow in to the race and at 11-2 she is worth a punt.

In terms of cast iron breeding, Point In Time is the only filly in the field designed to get 12 furlongs and in my book should be favourite, but has less scope than the selection.

3.05 Thirsk - Red Cymbal at 17-2 with BetVictor and Bet365:

I fully expect that Saeed Bin Suroor’s Bedouin Story will win this seven-furlong handicap and if somebody put a gun to my head then he would be my selection.

He may even be value at 6-5, considering last time everything went wrong and he still finished seven lengths clear in third of the 74-rated Noble Star. If there is any 11-8, I'm taking it.

But my eye has been drawn to the money flowing in for William Haggas’s Red Cymbal, who was as big as 10-1 last night and now is as short as 6-1 in places. He could get even shorter come post time.

Last year he showed abundant promise with a decent win over subsequent 0-80 handicap winner Fakhoor. After he underperformed at Chelmsford in December he then underwent wind surgery and after two poor runs this campaign he has now been gelded and will wear first-time cheekpieces. It could have the desired effect.

4.50 Leicester - Ninjago at a generally available 3-1:

Rux Ruxx is probably the right favourite but I’m not convinced she is value at 15-8, for all she is a three-year-old with a progressive profile.

At Leicester in July she looked to lack the gears required for six furlongs, and that could be one of the reasons why she has fared much better over a furlong further on her last two starts.

She has developed physically throughout the season and improved, and could well do better back over seven furlongs or a mile later in the season.

Here and now against some grizzled veterans though, the one I like is Ninjago. A lot of water has passed under the bridge since the eight-year-old was second in the Stewards’ Cup but he remains a talented horse on his day.

Once rated 105 he gets in to this 0-70 handicap off 71 and although David Probert is an excellent pilot, I had hoped trainer Andrew Balding may have reached for Jason Waston, who could have claimed, but he does not have a ride on Monday.

There are several horses who could force a decent pace, and all six of Ninjago’s wins have been held up of a fast pace. He was backed last night down from 100-30, so all looks in place for a big run.

Fang might be one for longshot punters, having had a wind operation and a pipe opener at Yarmouth last time.

7.30 Windsor - Harry Hurricane at a generally available 9-2:

Harry Hurricane’s last winning mark was off 96 in September 2016 and in June last year he was touched off by Line Of Reason in the William Hill Scottish Sprint Cup off 98.

He was fifth in a competitive handicap at Epsom in April off 92, was eighth in the Dash at the Derby meeting off 88 and was drawn wide at Chester when fifth last time. He slides in to this 0-80 off 82 and looks ridiculously well handicapped.

What the form book does not tell you, however, is that the wily George Baker saddled Harry Hurricane to win the Magnolia Cup at Glorious Goodwood this month at a canter. It was the easiest win of his career and the confidence boost will have him primed for this. Surely.

When the 9-4 favourite, Tylery Wonder, has a Timeform squiggle by his name, an in-form, well-handicapped second favourite looks worthy of consideration.

Geoffrey Riddle's Monday best bets:

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