Five horses to follow on Scottish Grand National day

The Flat season may be notching up a gear now, but there’s still plenty of brilliant action to look forward to over jumps in April, including the Coral Scottish Grand National, the feature contest on an eight-race card at Ayr on Saturday, all live on Racing TV.

At the time of writing, the ground is good to soft, good in places, and with a relatively dry forecast, the going is unlikely to change ahead of Saturday.

24 runners have been declared for the £150,000 showpiece, and I am hoping an impressive winner at this meeting last year will be able to land the spoils at big odds.

Best of luck with your bets this weekend, and please remember to gamble responsibly.

Best odds: 3-1 (General).

This half-brother to the high-class Simonsig showed bundles of promise in two starts over hurdles last season, including when third in a Grade One at Aintree on his second start, and is held in high regard by his powerful connections.

He’s clearly had a couple of issues over the past 18 months (an injury ruled him out of last year’s Cheltenham Festival) and did not make his seasonal debut until January this year when he got off the mark over fences at the first time of asking at Leicester, albeit in workmanlike fashion.

However, he still looked a work in progress there and overcame his inexperience to defeat Sail Away, who had the benefit of race fitness and experience over the larger obstacles.

Dusart showed he benefitted from the outing with an easy victory at Exeter on his next start where he produced a more polished display of jumping, despite providing a couple of scares up the home straight and again having the tendency to jump out to his left.

I think it is best to forgive his run in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase 15 days ago as he was struggling a long way from home and did not appear to enjoy the testing conditions. On the plus side, bar one mistake, he jumped well at Cheltenham and the return to a left-handed track suited him. He was also not given the hardest time under pressure, so the relatively quick turnaround isn’t a huge negative here.

He is surely capable of being much better than a rating of 147 and I expect him to outclass his opposition here, providing he has recovered from his Cheltenham exertions.

Best odds: 4-1 (Bet365).

Milkwood travelled strongly and quickened clear in impressive style when successful in this race 12 months ago and looks to hold strong claims of recording back-to-back victories in the £60,000 contest, despite being rated 8lb higher this year.

Neil Mulholland’s charge produced another career best when second in the Galway Hurdle behind dual Grade One winner Saldier on his next start off a mark of 147, and now finds himself on a career-high rating of 150.

Connections decided to embark on a chasing campaign this season, but the eight-year-old never jumped with much fluency on his chasing debut in October, and it is no surprise to see him revert back to hurdles.

Mulholland said Milkwood “was not 100 per cent” afterwards so the decision was made to freshen him up and wait for better ground, which this strong traveller relishes.

Although he lacks a recent run, he has won twice following a 174-plus day break, so I don’t expect an absence of 180 days to prove an issue here plus he has also had a racecourse gallop.

Sam Twiston-Davies, who has been operating at a strike-rate of 21 per cent in the past fortnight, is on board again and his mount should take all the beating.

West Cork has some strong handicap form next to his name this season and is an obvious danger, although he had a hard race at the Cheltenham Festival 15 days ago, and Anna Bunina, who is 13lb better off with Milkwood following a three-and-three-quarter length defeat in this race last year, has not looked in the same form this season.

Best odds: 33-1 (Bet365).

A leap of faith is required to take a chance on One More Fleurie in Saturday’s showpiece following his three below-par efforts this season, but he produced an impressive performance from the front at this meeting 12 months ago in the Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase - a race that has worked out well - and you can make a case for him on that run.

The eight-year-old was a rapid improver throughout last year and carried a 6lb penalty to victory in the three-mile contest when defeating Mac Tottie, who won the Grand Sefton this season, in eye-catching style.

Five Star Getaway, Innisfree Lad and Flegmatik were also among the rivals he beat on that occasion, and he jumped beautifully en route to success. What impressed me the most, though, was that he kicked for home turning in and hit the line strong which suggests this marathon trip will be within reach, especially in these conditions.

He has now dropped to a rating of 132, which is 4lb above his last winning mark, and Charlie Todd, who guided One More Fleurie to success at Ayr last year, claims a useful 3lb. The leading conditional jockey has had five winners from his past 15 rides (33 per cent strike-rate), which is another positive, and trainer Ian Williams operated at a 20 per cent strike-rate in March.

It is wise to think connections have had this race in mind for a while and if this bold jumper bounces back to his best, then he could prove hard to peg back.

I would rate Win My Wings as the danger, especially with leading amateur Rob James, who takes off a handy 7lb, booked to ride, and my colleague, Andy Stephens, was keen on his chances in his Scottish Grand National ante-post column.

Best odds: 11-4 (William Hill).

Bass Rock has shown improved form this season and shaped as though he failed to stay 3m1f on soft ground when running below-par at Carlisle in December. There may have been something amiss, too, as he has not been seen since.

He produced a career best off a rating of 130 on his previous start when third behind Dans Le Vent in a valuable Grade Three handicap hurdle at Haydock, and a repeat of that performance should be good enough to see him return to winning ways here off the same rating.

The form of his victory on his seasonal debut has also worked out well, with the runner-up scoring next time out and Tommy’s Oscar, who finished third, winning his next four starts.

Sandy Thomson’s six-year-old will also be suited by the return to quicker conditions, as well as the step back down in trip, and although he is 15lb higher than his victory in this race last year, there's surely more to come with just nine runs under his belt.

He was successful on his seasonal debut, so his recent absence isn’t a huge concern, and he can get the better of Hunters Call who has the strongest form next to his name, but may be vulnerable to an improver.

Best odds: 11-1 (William Hill).

This dual-purpose performer pulled 28 lengths clear with the runner-up when a narrow winner of this race last year and that effort gives him a strong of chance of scoring again off a 5lb higher mark.

The seven-year-old improved again when third in a 0-145 contest six days later where he had some useful performers in behind, including a certain L’Homme Presse who, admittedly, has improved dramatically switching to fences since.

Nevertheless, that was still a strong contest for the grade and this race represents a big drop-in class.

He has not been seen over obstacles since but has run well in defeat on the flat over the past 12 months and should be primed for this outing following two runs at Wolverhampton this year.

Paddy Barlow is yet to ride a winner under rules but takes a handy 5lb off and has been placed on four of his past six rides, while trainer Mark Walford has his team in red-hot form with four winners from his past 15 runners.