Ebor Festival trends: don't complicate matters on day one

The Juddmonte International has been a happy hunting ground for favourites in recent years, with four of the past five renewals going to the market leaders who have represented a good spread of age groups.

What is clear is that three-year-olds, especially those trained by Aidan O’Brien, should be afforded utmost respect, with the master Ballydoyle trainer having won with four such colts since the turn of the century, including City Of Troy 12 months ago.

This year’s well-fancied runner from the Classic generation is Delacroix, who won the Coral-Eclipse despite meeting trouble in running.

He ticks plenty of boxes, including having at least four wins to his name (11 of the last 12 winners) and at least one over this trip (seven of the last 12).

Main market rival Ombudsman, who was a neck behind Delacroix at Sandown, also has a Group One win to his name (Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot), an accomplishment that he shares with all bar three International winners this century.

The exceptions have been Sakhee (2001), Notnowcato (2006), and Arabian Queen (2015).

Of those in this year’s lineup, the filly See The Fire has yet to taste success at the top level. She has a fine course record but that hasn’t been important in this race (only two of the last 12 had previously won at the track).

Inexperienced French raider Daryz has won all four starts to date but is yet to run in a Group One. Moreover, every winner this century had at least five runs under their belt before heading to the Knavesmire.

You have to go all the way back to Electrocutionist’s 2005 success for Italian trainer Valfredo Valiani for the last truly international winner of the International, and whilst Japanese contender Danon Decile is respected after beating subsequent King George winner Calandagan when last seen in April, the lack of a recent run counts against him.

Ten of the past 12 winners had their last run within the last 53 days; compatriot Durezza was only fifth last year after a similar break.

All in all, there seems no point in complicating the matter. The last five three-year-olds sent out by Aidan O’Brien in this race - at 4/1 or shorter - have finished 1-2-1-3-1. Delacroix can further enhance that fine record.