Dave Nevison's Tuesday Newmarket racing tips: I predict a Riot

I thought this horse might run better than he did in the Lincoln but after that disappointment he has already come out and proved himself in pretty good form with a decent run at Newcastle. I am hoping he can up his game again on the Rowley Mile, a track where Mark Johnston-trained runners do exceptionally well.

Overwrite looks set to get the lead here which suits him and many of his stablemates perfectly and now that he is guaranteed to be hard-fit, he might be able to hold everything off. There are a few interesting rivals here, notably the consistent Hortzadar, but also a few who seem to be warming up over the wrong trip so this race may not be the most competitive for the grade.

Triner’s hearts must sink when they sort one of their stars out for a nice handicap and then on declarations day find out that there is a lightly-raced Gosden horse - who probably shouldn’t be running in handicaps at all - entered alongside them. Such is the depth of talent in the Gosden yard that they are going to take in several of these stepping stones along the way to greater things and Riot already looks a possible contender for the likes of the Victoria Cup and the Royal Hunt Cup.

He ran a blinder on his reappearance at Chelmsford and should have finished closer to the well-handicapped Sky Commander but for late trouble in running. The market will eventually overcompensate for these Gosden runners and they will be impossible to back, but at present there is still meat on the bone and Riot only has to make normal progress form first to second run of the season to score here. I suspect he will improve significantly and he has an awful lot in his favour.

I am pretty sure that this horse is going to be a factor in some big sprints this summer when getting top of the ground and I am not at all worried about backing him first time out as he won in good style first run last year. The only qualm I have about going in strong here is that he could be significantly better over six furlongs and that this could be a bit sharp for him. However I feel he could be so well handicapped that he is worth chancing against some largely-exposed rivals.

Charlie Hills has had three winners and two further seconds from his last 10 runners so has clearly started this season well and although Rewaayat is a six-year-old, I still reckon he has plenty of upside on him. Only if the heavens opened and the ground changed would I not want to get involved as it seems pretty clear he doesn’t want it soft.