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Dave Nevison's top tips for Wednesday: Kingdom to reign at Kempton

By Dave Nevison
Wed 11 Sep 2019

Racing TV's betting expert reveals his best bets at Carlisle and Kempton, and his nap runs in the final race of the day.

2.15 Carlisle: Nat Love at a general 11-4

Nat Love is improving with racing and can land this Nursery despite giving weight all round. She has earned her ranking in what looks a relatively uncompetitive handicap and was impressive last time when landing the odds in a maiden at Epsom.

Her handicap mark remained the same after that effort which I think is generous and previous nursery form at Newbury means she holds Danny Ocean – who needs to improve with the application of headgear - on these terms.

Nat Love’s last three runs have come over 7f, but he will definitely be ridden prominently and this stiff 6f might be ideal.

8.00 Kempton: Kingdom Of Dubai at 9-2 with Bet365

It was possibly a surprise that this one was backed into favouritism last time out as it was his first run for nine weeks and came after a very disappointing effort.

Kingdom of Dubai is certainly not the only one in this field that has been disappointing on occasions but he has never run a bad race at Kempton and that track seems to suit.

He wore blinkers when a finishing runner-up here in May and they are reapplied now plus he is running off a mark only 1lb higher.

If he gets this trip and improves for it, he can win this. I expect he will be held up but, given there is pace on, that is no bad thing.

8.30 Kempton: Purgatory at 3-1 with Bet365

This one is my best bet of the day in the last race of the evening meeting at Kempton so hopefully it is worth waiting for.

He is certainly bred to be better than this 0-65 grade – his dam was rated 95 - and this slow learner has shown definite signs of coming good recently.

After a win at Yarmouth, so often Chris Wall’s chosen venue to let one go, Purgatory was possibly unlucky not to win at Thirsk last time and can continue to progress here.

Blinkers seem to have focussed him and the trip looks ideal plus the trainer’s record in this grade with similar types is enviable.

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