Dave Nevison's top tips for Thursday: Make some money with Mercenary

By Dave Nevison@nevisondave
Thu 8 Oct 2020

Racing TV's top tipster has three decent-priced selections for the racing action at Ayr and Chelmsford, and both meetings will be shown live on Racing TV.

It looks a tough day punting-wise with the ground bottomless at Ayr and some really competitive handicaps at Chelmsford City.

I have picked three decent-priced selections and hopefully at least one will provide us with a run for our money.

3.10 Ayr: Real Smooth at a general 22-1

I hope this isn’t a case of seeing things that just aren’t there but having backed this horse at 50-1 last time out, I didn’t have too many complaints about how he ran, and I am content to go in again at the odds on offer.

It is true that he never had a chance as he missed the break worse than he sometimes does, but his run was definitely not helped by his jockey switching to the inside of the track after making ground to catch his rivals up.

Understandably, that effort proved too much, but he still didn’t lose too much ground when he weakened, and it was definitely his best run this season.

7.00 Chelmsford: Mercenary Rose at 20-1 with Paddy Power and Betfair

This mare ran well enough after a break on her reappearance in June, so I am not concerned about the subsequent absence.

The angle is obviously the wind op which has been undertaken after a slightly disappointing run on turf last time out.

If the operation proves to bring about improvement, then she can definitely capitalise on a good handicap mark as she is just a pound higher than her latest winning mark.

She is much better off with Benny And The Jets who won the Kempton race she returned in and other horses who have been winning have obviously been penalised by the handicapper.

The Paul and Oliver Cole combo are having a successful 2020 and I have no doubt a win will be forthcoming from this mare, and she looks a shade overpriced at 20-1.

This race is hardly competitive, but she is sure to be the outsider and with her jockey and trainer both having great seasons, I believe she is worth chancing.

8.30 Chelmsford: Let Rip at 15-2 with Paddy Power and Betfair

This horse looks as though he may well be a better stayer than his pedigree suggests given the way he was staying on resolutely over two furlongs less last time out.

I certainly think stepping him up is a risk worth taking and the booking of Tom Marquand means the experiment is pretty certain to be well executed.

He has run himself into very good form in 2020 and it was a good effort last time plus I am not concerned about his handicap mark.

However, he does have some serious rivals here and Capla Rose - who is seeking a four-timer - and Her Indoors will certainly help boost Let Rip’s likely odds.

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