Dave Nevison's top tips for Thursday: King ready to show what he is capable of

By Dave Nevison@nevisondave
Thu 30 Jul 2020

Two handicaps for three-year-olds only and two nursery’s on Thursday at Goodwood make this a seriously difficult day for me on the tipping front.

I am still pleased I am attempting to tip horses, rather than be the handicapper, as at least it means I only have to get one of them right, whereas the official grader has to try and get them all on the right mark.

That, as we know, is an impossible task, but I do think this card offers up a couple of good things and I think we might see the best three-year-old around. Best of luck.

2.45 Goodwood: English King at 11-8 with Boylesports

It is possible to watch the Derby a hundred times and still not work out how the events that unfolded actually happened.

I suppose it is theoretically possible that Serpentine was simply the best horse, but I think English King had so much go wrong for him, including being too far back to land a blow, that I have convinced myself that he will prove himself the best middle-distance three-year-old of his generation.

It seems difficult to believe that a jockey of the calibre of Frankie Dettori will get it wrong twice and I am sure he will want to prove that point here.

We know English King gets the trip and acts on a downland track as he showed at Lingfield. As well as being too far behind Serpentine, he got into trouble turning for home at Epsom which was inexcusable. He was staying on eye-catchingly in the last furlong, but not being knocked about as his jockey knew the game was up, so I don’t expect the race to have anywhere near bottomed him.

Several Derby runners re-oppose here, but none of the others really made me think they should have won the Epsom Classic and I am very confident English King will come out best.

4.55 Goodwood: Winter Power at a general 8-11

There are often handicap blots in the early weeks of nursery handicaps and with runners getting a mark after just two runs this season, it seems certain there will be more than usual in 2020.

This filly gets a 6lb penalty but, is still a stone, and possibly more, well in. She had been a beaten favourite on two start before she had seven weeks off and went to Redcar but made no mistake and bolted up in the style of a listed performer at least.

She looks a perfect ride for Silvestre De Sousa on the type of track he excels on and I really don’t think the others will see anything apart from her backside after she leaves the stalls.

5.30 Musselburgh: Northern Society at 9-1 with Bet365

It is not often you see a sprint handicap with so many out of form contenders involved, but Keith Dalgleish’s four-year-old has got a lot of things in her favour here and should go close at least.

It is interesting that she ran last time, even though her trainer would have known her mark had already been dropped for the following week. She ran a race that looked very much like a prep to bring her to peak fitness as she briefly looked like challenging before fading in the last furlong.

She has run her best races at Musselburgh and has won here twice before off higher marks - both under Shane Gray - and her only disappointing run came on extremely soft ground.

She also does best when making her challenge off a fast pace - which seems certain here - and she will not get many opportunities as perfect as this one.

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