Dave Nevison's top tips for Saturday: Nakeeta primed for repeat

By Dave Nevison
Fri 24 Aug 2018

Our betting expert has some strong fancies for York on Saturday - including a 20-1 chance.

1.50 York: Lord Glitters at a general 15-8

Although this horse last tasted victory in a Doncaster handicap there is little argument that he is now a Group class racehorse and certainly well up to winning at this level.

He was beaten only half a length in the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot in June and ran really well behind Lightning Spear in the Sussex Stakes last time out.

He has form at a lesser level over ten furlongs but has definitely been finishing his races off very well and I think the nine furlongs of this Strensall Stakes could prove ideal for him.

Threading was a distant second in the Coronation Stakes but she has not performed to her best this season, while my selection has been very consistent.

3.00 York: Arbelet each-way at 20-1 with Betfair and Paddy Power

This horse is too big a price at the 20-1 on offer. He has run a blinder on his past two starts and I think he is good enough to win a Group Three and this could well be it.

Last time he ran an excellent second to the reinvigorated Brown Sugar at Ascot, where he was prominent and showed ahead a furlong out. His running style is definitely very well suited to York.

Silvestre De Sousa rides for the first time, which is obviously no disadvantage.

Arbelet probably needs Expert Eye to run below form for him to win this but placed will be good enough at the odds and it is entirely possible that Expert Eye could disappoint even though his past two runs have been excellent.

3.40 York: Stratum to win at a general 7-2 and Nakeeta 10-1 each-way with Sky Bet, who are offering seven places

I am taking a strong view that the Newbury race won by the Tony Bloom-owned Stratum will be the key to the Ebor and feel absolutely certain that if Stratum shortens up close to the off then he will go very very close.

However, bookmakers, especially sponsors Sky Bet, are falling over themselves to get punters to bet each-way in this race by offering seven places and I cannot resist having a good each-way bet on last year’s winner.

Nakeeta is only 4lb higher than winning last year’s race and has been trained purely with this race and the Melbourne Cup in mind.

He came back to his best in the race at Newbury and at revised weights I am convinced he will finish alongside the favourite.

Last year’s winning jockey, Callum Rodriguez is back on and is a seriously improved young rider who still claims a valuable 3lb. The claim is significant in this race as it is so competitive trainers are looking for every ounce of an edge and the past four winners have been ridden by top class apprentices.

Jardine has been having winners recently and If Nakeeta cannot get in the first seven I am going to give up . . . . for at least a day.

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