Dave Nevison's top tips for Friday: Outbox can land knockout blow

By Dave Nevison
Thu 8 Aug 2019

Betting expert Dave Nevison has four selections across three meetings on Friday and will be disappointed if an Alan King-trained runner does not win the finale at Chelmsford City.

Only one of my three selections ran on Thursday as every fixture seemed to be predicting massive downpours and possibly several degrees of going changes.

The forecast storms could well have a major impact on Saturday's action as well. It definitely looks likely some tracks will go soft and with trainers declaring on Thursday, there may be more than a few non-runners on Saturday morning.

2.10 Musselburgh: Pioneering at 6-1 with Bet365

Pioneering was backed into 9-4 favourite after opening up at 5-1 last time out at Haydock but proved a huge disappointment as he never really figured in the race at all.

He wouldn’t have won at any trip in that event but looking at his races since joining Roger Fell, his best efforts have come at distances above a mile, but just short of 10 furlongs and with cut in the ground. He is likely to get both on Friday.

Three runs this season have been at a mile and a quarter, all in higher-grade handicaps than this 0-70.

Pioneering has been dropped to 65 and is ridden by useful 5lb claimer Ben Sanderson for the first time here. Cheekpieces have been re-applied and, although he has not won in them, they did have a positive effect on his form when used for first time at Pontefract last season.

Combined with the drop back down in trip and a his draw in stall one, I expect a positive forward ride and, at this level, his class should tell.

5.50 Chelmsford: Lady Red Moon at a general 2-1

Has been given a reasonable handicap mark for her nursery debut and improvement can be expected after three runs. She looks good enough to land this weak nursery.

This filly was forced wide on the home turn at Wolverhampton last time out but with just four runners and a draw on the inside, it seems most unlikely that she won’t get a clear run here.

7.10 Newmarket: Outbox at 2-1 with Ladbrokes

A secondary positive regarding the Sky Bet Ebor being upped to £1million is that we are getting to see a lot more of useful middle-distance handicappers this summer as they try desperately to get a penalty to make sure they get in the big race at York.

Outbox got us some place money behind King’s Advice at Goodwood on Saturday but was worn down close home and may actually be suited by this drop down to a mile and a half.

His running style is to be up with the pace which suits Newmarket perfectly. He may well take a lead from Kelly’s Dino here, but should be able to get past him.

Corelli will be a danger if he bounces back after disappointing last time out, but Outbox looks the strongest in this race.

Jack Mitchell has won on him twice in the past and he has scored on good to soft as well. Although I wasn’t of the opinion he needed headgear, if cheekpieces do bring out any further improvement, he really should score.

9.10 Chelmsford: Giving Back at 6-1 with Paddy Power and Betfair

A dual bumper winner, with both successes coming on an artificial surface, this five-year-old mare has definitely been brought along with handicaps in mind in three runs this season.

She has been sent off at bigger prices than her jumps form and pedigree suggested she should be for all of those runs and was not given a hard time last time out.

Alan King has done a good job and she has ended up with a mark of 60 which is 25lb below her lesser-bred half-sister, Giveaway Glance.

Clearly Giving Back has been given every chance to have success in Flat handicaps and it will be disappointing if she does not have enough in hand to beat some modest opposition here.

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