Dave Nevison's tips for Saturday: Hello can wave goodbye to rivals

By Dave Nevison@nevisondave
Sat 11 Jul 2020

Our betting expert has identified the one to beat in the Darley July Cup at Newmarket and has two other strong fancies.

 Hello Youmzain is the one to beat in the big sprint (Focusonracing)
Hello Youmzain is the one to beat in the big sprint (Focusonracing)

3.35 Newmarket: Hello Youmzain at a general 5-1

This horse somehow does not get the respect he deserves but I suspect he belatedly will on Saturday afternoon if he lands the Darley July Cup and becomes a three-time Group One winner.

He will hopefully break well and race up with the pace, which is his usual racing style, as that suits both Newmarket tracks. If he digs in as he did last time at Royal Ascot, when landing the Diamond Jubilee, it will take a very good one to get past him.

There is a school of thought that says Sceptical, third at Ascot, might turn around the form as that was only his sixth race and he may well improve. But he is by Exceed And Excel and generally they go best on quicker ground.

In any case, Hello Youmzain, who excels on softer ground, has himself had only eight races and so he could still have more to offer Golden Horde’s only mildly disappointing run came on soft going in France, so I have no idea why the very solid looking Hello Youmzain is not favourite.

3.50 Ascot: Stone Of Destiny at a general 10-1

I’m puzzled as to why this horse has been dropped 1lb as I felt he ran his best race for some time in the Wokingham. I’m also convinced he is significantly better over the minimum trip, which he reverts to on Saturday.

One thing for sure is that he loves Ascot, as he has shown on several occasions. A big field with a guaranteed pace suits him perfectly and he is drawn right beside Justanotherbottle and other prominent racers, so should get ideal circumstances. He is lower than he last won off and can go very close.

4.10 Newmarket: Keyser Soze at a general 25-1

Richard Spencer has been slotting home some big-priced winners recently and has his yard in very decent form. This horse is overdue a win but definitely still capable of delivering if things go right.

Keyser Soze is the architect of his own demise on most occasions as he often blows the start and hits traffic as a result. However, an optimistic view is that this race gives him his best chance for a while as it definitely looks set to be run at a strong pace, which on the prevailing ground should mean rivals are weakening in front of him.

There is no doubt he is well handicapped on turf and he was generously dropped 3lb for his latest run. Cieren Fallon claims a valuable 3lb off and will hopefully be alive to his foibles at the start.

There are several lightly raced types in this race who have pretensions to be Group horses in a handicap but I can’t split them and am happy to try to get a place at a big price. Take as many extra places as you can.

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