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Dave Nevison's top tips for Saturday: Stars impossible to oppose under champion elect

By Dave Nevison
Sat 5 Oct 2019

Our betting expert bids to follow up his confident selection of last week's Cambridgeshire winner Lord North, at 10-1, with three picks for Saturday's action and an each-way play in Sunday's Arc.

1.40 Newmarket: Eva Maria at 6-1 with SkyBet

I was not a believer in this filly when she was sent off a very short-priced favourite for a competitive Ayr handicap, feeling she had not done nearly enough running in very uncompetitive small field events to justify price.

Maybe I should have taken more notice of the market in that race, though, as the support just kept coming for her despite the fact that she was facing some decent and seasoned opposition.

The betting proved to be correct and Eva Maria signalled she might well be Listed class in coming from last to first in a slowly-run race, ultimately winning in seriously impressive style.

This £50,000 handicap is more competitive again but the ground is no issue and hopefully she can utilise a good draw against the far rail. In any case, I decided at Ayr she was a filly to stick with and I'm not changing my mind now.

2.15 Newmarket: Under The Stars at a general 7-4

Under The Stars runs another fine race in the Group two Rockfel Stakes

As always, a big field masks the fact that there is a relatively uncompetitive field for this sales event, which has been going just four years, but has seen only one winner at double-figure odds, despite there being 26-plus runners in each renewal.

James Tate will be very pleased with how his season has gone and a win here will confirm the fact that Tate is a fine placer of relatively inexpensively-bought horses.

Under The Stars has way the best form in this event, having already taken a Group Three at Ascot over this trip. It is always tempting with a filly who cost just £6,000 to believe that she will be found out, but three subsequent efforts in top-level have shown that she is very solid.

She runs against much lower-grade opposition here and with Oisin Murphy back on board, she should be odds-on.

2.55 Redcar: Summer Sands at a general 6-5

He has already done a big favour to two sets of owners, having given his first pinhooker a fine payday when his auction price rose from £2,000 to £85,000 in two visits to the sales. However, even at the higher price, he has proved money well spent after fine efforts in the Gimcrack and Middle Park on his last two starts.

The conditions of the Racing TV Redcar Two Year Old Trophy see the weights here dictated by the relative popularity, or lack of it, of each horse's sire in the sales ring.

Given that Coach House has largely flown under the radar as a stallion, Summer Sands can run off just 8st 3lb here. Barry McHugh rode Richard Fahey’s last winner of this race two years ago for the same connections.

Sunday

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 3.05 Longchamp - Waldgeist at 20-1 with bet365

I have a 100 per cent record in picking the winner of the big race on the two occasions I have actually travelled to Paris to watch the Arc. Sadly the money is long spent and both Carroll House and Subotica are very distant memories now!

I am looking forward to going there again on Sunday and meeting my dad for his 80th birthday, hoping to pay for some expensive French drinks with this horse who was an unlucky-in-running fourth last year.

He has been behind Enable three times in the past year and more than likely can’t turn it around. However, over the years there have been a number of older horses to come back and find their very best again under the conditions of this race.

Having fared well with the draw and had the perfect Andre Fabre prep run in the Foy last time, 20-1 looks fair each-way value for him to grab at least a place.

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