The Racing TV betting expert has been in great form this week, including a couple of winners on Friday. And this time he's got 'that' feeling about one.
Every so often I get the feeling that it is time to unload on one and this is the first for a while. Slide-rule calculations involving pounds and lengths suggest Proschema should finish very close indeed to Who Dares Wins on their running in the Northumberland Plate last month, but I believe there are several reasons why placings will be reversed and a small weights pull is the least significant of them.
I have watched the Newcastle race several times and it is clear that Proschena ran a cracker in ending up a strong-finishing third. He was drawn 17 of 19 and connections evidently took the very reasonable view that from that draw, it would be expedient to drop the horse out and come with a long late run.
Such a choice was made even more understandable given that it was Proschema’s first attempt at two miles and his unproven stamina might have been sapped even further trying to get an early position.
Jane Elliot did a good job, but Proschema turned into the straight in last place and when trying to begin his run found himself behind a wall of horses all trying to pick up sone prize money in a prestigious race.
In order to get a clear run, Elliott brought the horse almost to the stands' rail, forfeiting ground and momentum. Proschema is a huge horse though, and needs time to get through his gears. He was powering home and would surely have won in a few more strides.
Even after the winning post, Proschema was powering on and his jockey really struggled to get him to stop. Interestingly the two horses drawn wider that day have both run since, finishing first and third in a heritage handicap at Newmarket's July meeting.
I have no criticism to make of Jane Elliott, but the excellent Richard Kingscote takes over this afternoon and does so now armed with the knowledge that Proschema gets this trip well.
He is drawn in stall seven, which looks ideal (there are front runners in stalls one and two, which is also good news). Newbury is the perfect track for a big, long-striding horse and Proschema is proven on softer ground. Even the stable form doesn't look an issue, with Tom Dascombe's team in good nick.
This is a quality event, so clearly there will be dangers, but for my money not enough to keep this one out of the top five at the very least.
Connections may feel disappointed that this horse failed to make the cut to get into Proschema’s race at Newbury, but he would probably not have been good enough in any case. However, he made a very promising comeback at Sandown a couple of weeks ago and can build on that here.
Mick Channon's charge will be suited by this step back up to 14 furlongs, as he definitely gets this trip and I expect him to be in the vanguard here which is very much a positive at Haydock and ideal for one not blessed with finishing speed.
In short, he looks a possible improver over this trip and there are few in this race. The Resdev Way blew his handicap mark last time and only top weight Matchmaking and Buckland Boy look likely types.
The former is in his third season for Sir Mark Prescott and won three last year so the handicapper has at least had some say already, while Buckland Boy has won two and has obviously also gone up in the weights. The market has long since tightened the odds on Prescott runners with the stable firing again and Charlie Fellowes' horses are also unlikely to be ignored in the market. I am expecting a good run from Beer With The Boys at a backable price.
A sprinter who has been running herself fit in typical Eric Alston fashion, who now finds herself on a mark of 60 which I believe she is definitely well capable of exploiting.
She tried to lead in a 0-85 last time out and ran really well, ending up getting beaten just over two lengths. Back against 0-70 rivals her chance is obvious.
There are one or two modest burn up merchants in this and my main concern would be that Rachel Richardson doesn’t get involved and unnecessarily drain the tank. Her last win came off a mark of 70 on heavy ground so conditions won’t be a problem if more rain arrives.
Watch Lydiate Lady's latest effort over in a better race over track and trip again
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