Dave Nevison's horse racing tips: Sommers can bloom at Ayr on Tuesday

Rae Guest has a very long history of getting the best out of fillies in particular, and Rosa Gold hit a rich vein of form last year with three wins on the spin. She obviously went up in the weights and found it tough last autumn – she is still 9lb higher than her latest win – but judged on her reappearance effort she might just have improved over the winter.

She certainly looked as though she could start winning again after a luckless passage in a good race at Leicester earlier this month. She hit form on her second run of last season and this extended mile will suit perfectly. Jockey David Probert is in very strong form this season.

He will be suited by the step back up to a mile after a promising reappearance when staying on over seven furlongs and, if he comes on for that run as normal, he will go very close here.

This consistent four-year-old is drawn on the outside, but I don’t anticipate it being too difficult to establish a prominent position as there are several slow-starting, hold-up types drawn immediately inside him.

Michael Dods has begun the season well, while Paul Mulrennan struck up a good partnership with Challet last season and keeps the ride.

He is from a stable in cracking form and has been found a race where he will likely get the lead, which will suit him well. I am pretty certain he will go off favourite again here, but rightly so in my view. He looks a good bet.

He has never run in a race of this grade and there are no runners here who look to have improvement in them apart from Greengage, the horse who beat him last time. However, that rival had a fitness advantage then and Will Sommers is now 2lb better off at the weights.

After a very promising two-year-old debut at this course, it seemed unlikely he would still be a maiden on his return to this track as a four-year-old. Things clearly haven’t gone perfectly for him in the interim, and he has let punters down several times when getting beaten as favourite. However, he definitely looked to have a future at one time and there is just a chance that Will Sommers could be one to follow in this early part of the season.