Dave Nevison's horse racing tips: My four best bets for Saturday

By Dave Nevison@nevisondave
Fri 7 Oct 2022

Dave Nevison has four bets spread across three meetings on Saturday, including York and Newmarket, live on Racing TV.

Paddy's Pick 5 tips: Tom Bull's best bets for Saturday

2.17 Chepstow: Tea Clipper

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Tea Clipper won the feature handicap hurdle on this card two years ago, plus also won a Listed chase on his seasonal debut at this meeting last year and has a terrific chance of landing a first-time out hat-trick at Chepstow on Saturday.

He contested some really hot novice events after his victory 12 months ago and finished fourth in two of the big handicap chases at both the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals.

This race is far less competitive than those events and a few of his rivals look like real stayers who might have their eyes on future targets.

It seems very likely Tom Lacey will have Tea Clipper primed for his return before raising him in grade later in the season. He looks one to follow this side of Christmas.

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3.15 York: Air Raid

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Jedd O’Keeffe has his string in really good form, with winners on the flat and over jumps in the past few days.

Air Raid is a consistent performer who has gone very well fresh in the past, so I am not concerned that we have not seen him since the spring, and he finished third at a big price in this contest last season following a four-month absence.

The selection is suited with cut in the ground, so conditions should be ideal for him, and he has a lot going for him here.

A middle draw is perfect for big-field sprints at York, and he is likely to be able to race prominently, which suits, as does this track.

Air Raid is pretty much always ridden by Jack Garrity, who gets on very well with him, and this seven-year-old looks overpriced at the general 20-1 on offer.

Darley Dewhurst Stakes: runner-by-runner guide

3.40 Newmarket: Evaluation

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There may be a smaller field than usual, but the Cesarewitch certainly lacks nothing in quality, and I am very hopeful Evaluation will see off a very strong Irish challenge.

Evaluation is a son of the Queen’s Gold Cup winner, Estimate, and has certainly inherited all that horse’s staying qualities. He went down by the narrowest of margins when bidding to land a huge bonus on the final fixture of the SkyBet Sunday Series, and he runs off the same mark here.

Despite winning four on the bounce after joining Keith Dalgleish, he still looks to have improvement left in him, and although he was quirky when with Sir Michael Stoute, he seems to be much more focussed as he matures for his excellent, and in-form, trainer.

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4.25 York: Carrigillihy

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Looks the improver here and might still have upside over this trip compared to his older, and more exposed, rivals.

After a win at Pontefract over 12f on his penultimate start, he stepped up a further two furlongs at Redcar where he was just run out of it close home by a stable companion.

Carrigillihy got in a protracted battle up the straight with the horse who finished third, and the two of them may well have softened each other up for a real stayer to get past.

I am marking that run with a positive and have no doubts about Carrigillihy running over another two furlongs further here. In fact, I anticipate improvement to come.

Read more:

Darley Dewhurst Stakes: runner-by-runner guide

Paddy's Pick 5 tips: Tom Bull's best bets for Saturday

Irish horse racing tips: Johnny Ward's best bets for Saturday

Ross Millar's best bets at Newmarket on Saturday

Paul Mulrennan: The inside track on my York rides

Racing TV's presenters and pundits Jumps horses to follow

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