Dave Nevison's Grand National tips and Saturday's best bets

Dave Nevison's Grand National tips and Saturday's best bets

By Dave Nevison
Last Updated: Tue 5 Dec 2023
Betting expert Dave Nevison reveals his four selections for the Randox Grand National at Aintree plus also has two bets earlier on the card.
Missed the Cheltenham Festival but produced a really useful performance at Kempton the weekend after and has been improving while picking up small races all season.
His only previous run in a handicap resulted in him being pulled up in the Lanzarote Hurdle, along with the majority of the field. It was a real slog that day, though, and I am happy to forgive him that effort plus prefer to look at the row of first places in his form figures.
Outlaw Peter looks ready for this sort of test, and the ground will not be testing here, while Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden have both been in terrific form.
Bypassing the Cheltenham Festival could be a good tactical move here.
I have been torn between Midnight River and Nassalam – who both ran below expectations at the Cheltenham Festival – in this race, but eventually decided to side with Dan Skelton’s charge.
Midnight River had obviously been campaigned with success at the Cheltenham Festival in mind, and after finishing a fine third in the Paddy Power Gold Cup earlier in the season, he landed the big handicap at the same track on New Year’s Day.
The Skelton team have obviously investigated the failure behind Midnight River’s below-par Festival run and decided to apply a tongue tie for this race. If that device works, we should have a very progressive horse to back in a race where it is tough to find an angle.
Hopefully breathing easier, and the flatter track, will help him stay this trip, too.

Grand National selections:

Vanillier

Trainer: Gavin Cromwell. General odds: 20-1.
It is difficult to see too many horses who look as though they might actually improve for the unique test the Randox Grand National provides, but Vanillier is definitely one of them, and he is the pick of my four against the field.
It is obvious that this eight-year-old has been campaigned with this race in mind having run in races far too short of his optimum until after the weights were published, and it is my belief he will have been primed for Saturday.
Vanillier won the Albert Bartlett in 2021 and while he may not have scaled the heights once anticipated over fences as yet, he is still very much a class act, which he proved last time out when almost defeating former Irish Gold Cup winner Kemboy at Fairyhouse when conceding him 8lb.
That was a terrific effort and if he had shown that form before the weights for the Randox Grand National were published, Vanillier is sure to have been among the top weights.
Gavin Cromwell has shown himself a master trainer in a relatively short space of time and having realised that this horse is perhaps not good enough to win a Cheltenham Gold Cup, he has campaigned him to win the world’s richest steeplechase off a very decent mark.
Based upon his latest effort, a rating of 147 is more than fair, and if he handles this unique course, I believe Vanillier is the best handicapped horse in the race.

Corach Rambler

Trainer: Lucinda Russell. General odds: 13-2.
Corach Rambler provided this column with a winner at the Cheltenham Festival when he received a terrific ride from Derek Fox.
Immediately after that success in the Ultima, he was shortened to just about favourite for this race and it is hard to argue against bookies having him as the market leader.
His trainer, Lucinda Russell, trained One For Arthur to win this in recent seasons and is another who is showing herself to be a master planner, with very limited resources, especially with a staying chaser.
He is the right age (8), and at the right end of the handicap, and arrives here in great form.
Derek Fox has shown twice that he can deliver this hold-up horse late and guide him to big race success, and Aintree will present him with another serious test. At a general 13-2, he can hardly be described as value, but Corach Rambler is a serious contender.
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Noble Yeats

Trainer: Emmet Mullins. General odds: 8-1.
Noble Yeats scored at 50-1 last year, but a close examination of exchange activity revealed a massive late plunge on him, so he was clearly not the shock it might have looked.
He has shown that win not to be a fluke and landed the Many Clouds Chase over the Mildmay fences here earlier in the season.
It is possible to take two views about his run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time out. Firstly, that the race fell apart, and after looking like being tailed off, he picked up the pieces late on as contenders were taken out of the race.
The other view is that he flew up the hill with a finish that immediately had observers thinking of a repeat win here, even off a 19lb higher mark.
As a punter who has benefitted massively from Grittar, Miinnehoma and Rough Quest all winning this after using the Cheltenham Gold Cup as a trial, I cannot leave him out, and can only take a positive view of that run.

Delta Work

Trainer: Gordon Elliott. General odds: 9-1.
Delta Work was one of two I backed each-way last year and, given the way he travelled, I was never not going to be paid out, providing he didn’t fall!
That was certainly a possibility early on in the race as he made two early mistakes, which shuffled him back through the field.
He made up the ground gradually and looked a contender to win half a mile out but faded between the last two fences.
I don’t believe being beaten more than 20 lengths tells the whole tale, though, and he comes here following a success at the Cheltenham Festival.
Another clear round should see him be competitive off a pound lower mark.

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