Dave Nevison's Friday Tips: Spencer to strike again aboard Ilalliqua

By Dave Nevison@nevisondave
Fri 23 Oct 2020

The tipster has been in winning form this week and has three selections for Newbury, headed by a filly on whom Jamie Spencer bids for a follow-up victory.

The return of Cheltenham to the schedules is always exciting, although it will be a shame to watch only a smattering of people enjoying the action in the enormous grandstands. Personally, I'll be concentrating upon the Flat action from Newbury.

2.50 Newbury: Ilalliqua ( at 9-2 - general)

This fily received the archetypal Spencer treatment last time on her handicap debut, missing the break and coming from last to first to get up and win by a short-head at Yarmouth.

However, even ice-cool Spencer must have been anxious as she wandered around under pressure before hitting the line just in front. She is proven under these conditions and her style of running strongly suggests the extra two furlongs won’t be a problem - there is some encouragement in her pedigree as well.

Given the way in which her price tag jumped massively from being sold as a yearling to the Breeze-ups, she clearly has plenty of presence and I hope she can continue to improve.

3.25 Newbury: Jacinta De Vega (at 100-30 - general)

All eyes are likely to be on Ben Lilly as he attempts the six-timer, with Ryan Moore booked, and he is in theory still well in under a penalty, but he could just be up against one who is thrown in and on the beginning of a similar roll.

Jacinta de Vega is lightly raced, but has plenty of experience of a battle and has run really well on her last couple of starts. She definitely looks as though she will be suited by the trip and the ground is no problem. Her trainer is a master at bringing fillies on, in particular, and has been in pretty good form all season.

5.06 Newbury: Main Fact (at 7-4 with William Hill)

David Pipe may well be more focused upon on what is happening at Cheltenham, but his runner here looks to have a solid chance. We got on this one at the start of his winning run over hurdles after he moved to his current yard, and he went on to complete a sequence.

He is now rated in the high-130s over hurdles but is still down on a plater’s mark on the level. I use a rule of thumb of 35lb differential between codes for a horse like this and if this admittedly highly-unscientific yardstick proves accurate here, Main Fact will win by a furlong. Here's hoping!

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