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Dave Nevison's Friday Tips: Kipps deserves another chance at HQ

By Dave Nevison@nevisondave
Fri 9 Oct 2020

A bumper Friday afternoon of action on Racing TV, with some quality Group-race action at Newmarket. However, with conditions on the soft side underfoot, there are sure to be shocks, so I will stick with this week's theme of big-priced horses rather than trying to find a good thing.

2.05 York: Alemaratalyoun at 25-1 with William Hill

Hailing from a stable struggling for form - although there have been a few recovery signs recently - he has not really sparked this season but is now 3lb lower than his latest win and is going to be racing under ideal ground conditions here.

After that easy win at Goodwood last year he was turned out in this corresponding race last and ran another cracker to be third off a penalty so he was effecitvely 10lb higher than he is today.

He has not been seen over this trip again since then, so there is some circumstantial evidence that he may run well, and with up to six places on offer each way with a couple of firms, it's worth the risk that this is the point at which he returns to form.

2.40 York: Ispahan at 11-2 with William Hill and Sky Bet

This is another cracking, competitive-looking race and Ispahan needs to step up against very useful opposition. But he looks a lightly-raced improver, a type that his trainer is becoming known for, and can improve past Zeeband on marginally better terms.

He is still learning, as was apparent at Thirsk last time, and he should be very well suited by softer ground if he takes after his siblings. David Simcock has his string in very good form which is another positive for this maiden in a handicap.

3.45 York: Copper Knight at 9-1 with Bet Victor

The last time that this horse ran in a 0-95 handicap was when winning this same handicap in 2018 and he has a great chance here to win it again.

He was racing off 92 when taking this event and has subsequently scored off higher but the handicapper took umbrage after he won a Listed race over course and distance and he has struggled ever since.

Rachel Richardson, who has won on him once, has ridden him on his latest three starts, but David Allan, who has been successful on him five times already, is back on board here. He takes over with his mount's back down to a mark off 95, 2lb lower than his latest winning level and can score on a track he clearly loves.

4.10 Newmarket: Kipps at 16-1 with Bet365

Plenty of fingers have been burned with this horse, who has not won a handicap this season and has been beaten in a few good ones at shortish prices. There are also several quality animals against him again here, but I do not think Kipps deserves to be as big as the 16/1 at which he is available at the time of writing.

His excellent efforts have been tainted by him going off favourite and others may be taking a once-bitten, twice-shy view that means he offers real each-way value. Again, it's worth shopping around for extra places if you can get on with the relevant firms.

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