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Dave Nevison's Friday Racing Tips: Penny for the Guy

By Dave Nevison@nevisondave
Thu 18 Nov 2021

Still licking his wounds from a 50-1 second place on Tuesday, Racingtv.com's resident tipster Dave Nevison hit the target with winners on Wednesday and Thursday and returns with three selections he has high hopes for on Friday, including a representative for Jonjo O'Neill and Jonjo O'Neill.

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12.10 Catterick: Bari Breeze

This is a very competitive race with more in-form horses than you might expect for a conditional riders' handicap at this track but Bari Breeze looks a well-handicapped horse by my reading. He has won a bumper and done nothing wrong in just three runs over hurdles and given that he is related to out-and-out stayers, looks certain to be suited by this big step up in trip.

Although beaten in seemingly lowly events at Newton Abbot, Sedgefield and Fontwell I think all three races might have been stronger than expected and especially his fifth at Sedgefield two starts to go suggested better was to come. Milton Harris has been in very good form recently and has put up Mitchell Bastyan on three of his winners this month so confidence in the jockey is obviously high. Bari Breeze should be a decent price with Fergal O’Brien and Donald McCain among others with fancied runners.

2.05 Ascot: Guy

This horse was very well backed before being pulled out of a competitive Saturday handicap recently due to the ground being too quick and has a good chance off bottom weight here.

He looked to have a future over fences with four good runs as a novice last season and suggested that he could be one to follow when he ran the much more experienced and very well handicapped Senior Citizen pretty close on his comeback last month. Up just 2lb and with Sam Twiston-Davies back on board and with ground and trip to suit he can continue to progress.

2.40 Ascot: Garry Clermont

I missed this horse when he won over hurdles in May but he had been high on my list of novice handicap chasers to be with after his effort at Carlise last autumn and I have no doubt the bigger obstacles will figure on his radar again soon. However the style of his win at Warwick suggests he can win more over hurdles before being switched and he will definitely get a race run to suit his style here.

He likes to travel just off a decent pace and there are several frontrunners here to guarantee that and considering he never came off the bridle last time, a 7lb rise looks very fair. The absence since May could be a concern but I have changed my approach with fancies from this yard and like to watch the market just before the off to give me a guide as to whether they are fit and expected to go well and will be watching for a move in either direction in the final minutes before the race.

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