Dante Festival: three to consider on Thursday at York

The Group highlights on day two of the Dante Festival are the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Middleton Stakes for the older fillies and mares and the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes, the contest for which the meeting is best known and one that has proved the pre-eminent trial for the Betfred Derby on Epsom Downs in recent years. 

Trainer Charlie Appleby has cited ground concerns for Ancient Wisdom – he would like some give underfoot for his Group One winner – and while the forecast does not guarantee that, the Dubawi colt still looks to have a bit in hand regardless and for an assignment which has been a long-term plan. 

The Middleton Stakes might offer more of a betting opportunity, given Free Wind is available to back at 15-8 and that looks fair enough to me. 

It's noteworthy that the six-year-old mare has been kept in training – she was unlucky in the Yorkshire Oaks last year and a repeat bid at that race in August for a deserved Group One breakthrough is presumably the plan – and she is three from three on her seasonal reappearance so far. 

Her latest was when winning this race last year, and that was after a much longer injury absence and in a race that worked out fantastically well. There was a lack of pace on last year – a whopping finishing speed percentage of 114 per cent underlines that – and she did well to win from further back than ideal given she was not cherry ripe. 

While the ground this time will not be as quick as last year, Free Wind will get the fast Flat racing ground that I think she needs to show her best and the make-up of this year’s race – there is a lack of pace on offer here with no obvious front-runner – represents a set-up that we know she can handle despite the fact she stays up to 1m6f. The Gosden yard is four from 10 in the Middleton this century (1.07 A/E).

Her main market rival is Bluestocking and this high-class filly was just denied in several top-level races last season, but the pace make-up of this race and lively-enough ground look to her disadvantage, while Free Wind is 5lb clear in the ratings of next-best Caernarfon (11lb clear on Timeform ratings).

The opening Lindum Handicap is a race I look out for and one which has some interesting trends that it can pay to try and keep onside. Just two favourites, joint-favourites or co-favourites have landed this race since 1997 and, of those runners, just seven have finished in the first three. 

A low draw and racing on the front end is never a bad tactic in sprint races on the Knavesmire and those berthed in the lowest quarter of the stalls in this race in the last 25 years have done particularly well (12 per cent, +£56.50, 1.53 A/E).

Another thing worth mentioning is that this class 2 sprint is a hard race to win on seasonal return – indeed, last year’s winner and subsequent Group One scorer Regional is only the second horse to achieve the feat in the last 25 years - and that’s off-putting for the chances of some at relatively short prices like Equilateral and Spartan Arrow.

On the contrary, horses running back in this particularly quickly represent a profile that has proven really profitable to follow in this race. Even in sprint races, such types might appear off-putting to punters but 16 of the last 26 winners had run within the last fortnight and 11 of those within the past 10 days - including four of the last five – to strong figures (11.5 per cent, +£45.50, 1.35 A/E). 

COPPER KNIGHT is a sprinter with his best days behind him and he’s 6lb out of the weights, but this forward-goer makes decent appeal each-way from a favourable low draw and after a good run at Chester last week when just done on the line by Democracy Dilemma.

This seven-time course-and-distance winner has likely been targeted at this race since the start of the season and the cheekpieces are back on for the first time this term. He won over five furlongs at this track when the cheekpieces were reapplied for the first time in the previous campaign.

Metal Merchant is the current favourite in the Oakmere Homes Hambleton Handicap and the Spring Cup winner races from a 5lb higher mark, but in a mile handicap at York around two turns his draw in the widest stall of 19 is off-putting and he looks one to try and take on.

POINT LYNAS was just touched off in this race at 18-1 last season and, although he’s running here on his seasonal return this time and finds himself 7lb higher in the weights, the pace set-up might just suit him here. 

A maximum field of 20 runners line up for this £75,000 race but there aren’t too many established front-runners. Point Lynas is certainly one of those and the only one in the favoured bottom half of the draw and that might just prove significant, especially so if the ground remains on the fast side. 

Point Lynas improved throughout last season and signed off with a creditable effort at Group 3 level after good progress in handicaps. He needs to prove he can start off from a similar level at the outset of his five-year-old season, but he has won twice after breaks for this yard so far and trainer Ed Bethell, despite a fairly quiet start to the season, has a good record with handicappers after breaks off 200 days or more (21 per cent, 42 per cent win and place, +£4.25, 1.76 A/E). 

Northern Express is shorter in the betting but he’s still worth a mention at a standout 9/1 with William Hill at a track he loves. Given his overall profile you’d be disappointed if he wasn’t there or thereabouts and trainer Michael Dods had several horses run well on Wednesday’s card at York.

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