Bet365 Craven Stakes: runner-by-runner guide plus tip

Bet365 Craven Stakes: runner-by-runner guide plus tip

By Andy Stephens
Last Updated: Tue 5 Dec 2023
Andy Stephens takes a closer look at the seven runners in Thursday's feature and predicts who will finish where. Watch what happens live on Racing TV.

1. Ancestral Land

Official Rating: 101. Odds: 18-1. 2000 Guineas: 100-1

newbury

13:50 Newbury - Saturday October 22
Good looker at two who appeals as the type to do better again this year. It was a case of the further the better when he lost his maiden tag on soft going at Chepstow (6f) and he coped well with a jump in class when third in the Horris Hill at Newbury (7f) the following month, when the ground was heavy. He’s got quite a speedy pedigree but that Newbury effort suggests he may well fly in the face of it, and it will be interesting to see what he can do on good going.
What they say: Clive Cox: “We have chosen to go this route and it will be nice to give him an opportunity to run at the track. He is a horse we hold in high enough regard and it is a very nice starting point which will help form our plans from here. His whole demeanour gives us the impression he will get a mile and we hope that will be possible. I trained his dam to win over five furlongs, but he is a horse that has done exceptionally well physically and he hit the line well over seven last year. He is a horse that gives us the impression a mile is definitely within his compass.”

2. Dancing Magic

Official Rating: 106. Odds: 20-1. 2000 Guineas: 100-1

newmarket

14:25 Newmarket - Saturday October 8
Begins this season as a maiden after five starts, but that masks the fact that he chased home Naval Power at Haydock before finishing a creditable fourth to Silver Knott in the Autumn Stakes over course and distance, when making plenty of the running. Also filled the same position behind Auguste Rodin in the Vertem Futurity, albeit well beaten, when possibly unsuited by the deep ground. Bred to find this a bare minimum and likely to do better over further later in the campaign.

3. Indestructible

Official Rating: 107. Odds: 8-1. 2000 Guineas: 100-1

york

14:25 York - Wednesday August 17
He’s been switched to Karl Burke from Michael O’Callagahan since last year, plus had a wind op. Confirmed debut promise when romping home at Windsor (6f) before twice chasing home Chaldean; in the Acomb and then Champagne Stakes. He traded odds-on in the run on the first occasion before going down by half a length and was probably at a tactical disadvantage the next time when beaten more readily. His runs last term, combined with the dam’s side of his pedigree, offers hope he will be fully effective over a mile. Chaldean went on to land the Dewhurst and if he was in this line up would be a very skinny price.
Tom Pennington, racing and operations manager for owners Amo Racing: “His pedigree suggests he will get a mile and he got seven furlongs well last year as a two-year-old. The form is there. He has to make the improvement from two to three, but he definitely has the scope to do that and the form is in the book so he will be a nice three-year-old going forward hopefully.

4. Mostabshir

Official Rating: -- Odds: 100-30. 2000 Guineas: 25-1

kempton-park

18:30 Kempton-Park - Wednesday November 16
The grey is well-related with his siblings including Mostahdaf and Nazeef. He did his bit to keep the family flag flying when scoring in ready fashion on his debut at Kempton in November, although he was well placed in a steadily-run race and I’m not sure he beat much (incientally, third-placed Tadshin was eye-catching and is one for your Racing TV Tracker). He’s in top hands and slips into the “could be anything” category but is defensively priced up.
Angus Gold, racing manager for Mostabshir’s owners Shadwell. “He won his only start nicely and now we’re dropping him in the deep end a bit with only one run under his belt. They’ve all been happy with him at home so with the season starting we need to know where we are with him. He’s still entered in the Guineas and I’m imagining that will come too quick for him, but let’s see how we get on Thursday. He’s the least experienced in the field and it will tell us a lot more in terms of his class and the track and all those things. It’s a learning curve.”

5. Mr Mistoffelees

Official Rating: 81. Odds: 80-1. 2000 Guineas: 200-1
Raised his game when edging home in a mile maiden at Kempton in mid-December, at 33-1, having offered little in two previous starts. The runner-up has since suffered an odds-on defeat at Wolverhampton and this looks quite an ambitious project, although trainer not usually one to tilt at windmills.

6. Mysterious Night

Official Rating: 110. Odds: 2-1 fav.2000 Guineas: 25-1

newmarket

13:50 Newmarket - Saturday September 24
Charlie Appleby has won three of the past four renewals of this race, although whether this colt is in the mould of Masar, Master Of The Seas or Native Trail (who were all subsequently placed in the 2000 Guineas) is another matter. Perhaps he’s more of a Zakouski, fifth for Appleby in the 2019 renewal. Mysterious Night scooped decent prizes in France and Canada in the autumn but there was an element of him grabbing low-lying fruit. He had previously come up short in pattern company at Newmarket and Goodwood, suggesting he might also be vulnerable here, for all that he you need to take a deep breath to take on this yard and that he is unlikely to lack for fitness.
Charlie Abbleby: “He has already won at Grade One level in Canada. He’s a horse that has strengthened and done very well for the winter. The track (at Newmarket) will be interesting for him as he’s got a great big stride on him and my only concern would be how he handles it. That is why we are running him in the Craven to test his mettle there.”

7. Naval Power

Non-Runner.

8. The Foxes

Official Rating: 111. Odds: 7-2. 2000 Guineas: --

newmarket

13:50 Newmarket - Saturday September 24
Finished behind Mysterious Night when they made their respective debuts at Newbury, and also failed to cut much ice in the Chesham. However, the fact he even ran at Royal Ascot told us something and he won at Godwood (7f) next time before taking the Royal Lodge over course and distance. That latter success is hard to read – the race turned into a sprint and the form looks untrustworthy – but he’s in good hands and not one to underestimate.
VERDICT
Dancing Magic may well get a softish lead but it will be a surprise if he has the gears to repel his pursuers. The Foxes and Mysterious Night command plenty of respect but the value could lie with Indestructible, whose form last year stands close inspection. Bet365 make him 8-1.
1 Indestructible
2 The Foxes
3 Mysterious Night
4 Ancestral Land
5 Mostabshir
6 Dancing Magic
7 Mr Mistoffelees

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