Forty horses. Forty jockeys. Thirty fences dressed in spruce. The Randox
Grand National is always one of the great spectacles of the sporting year and the world’s most famous race will be watched by an estimated a global audience of 600 million on Saturday.
Casual viewers turning in for their once-a-year fix might not notice, but modifications mean the showpiece is not the contest it once was.
The fences are less fearsome than in days of old and the race distance has been shortened, with the one-time long run to the first fence no more. Only three horeses fell in the latest renewal, which must constitute a record and suggests the tinkering has brought benefits.
The qualification system, for equine and human participants, is also more strict, and anyone wanting firm ground for their horse can forget it. Bulletins from
Aintree in the past fortnight have again made regular references to watering and on Friday night the taps may again be turned on.
Jonjo O'Neill told Tom Bull more about Cloth Cap, the favourite
Owners once reluctant to let their horses take part have been won over, while prize-money rising to £1 million (it’s £750,000 this year because of the global pandemic) has, naturally, also proved a magnet. Better horses blessed with quicker minds and more nimble feet are taking part these days.
Saturday’s renewal is the classiest there has been. Ever. No runner has an official handicap rating below 145. It reflects well on the health of a race now backed by a sponsor, Randox, who deal with the health of humans every day.
Between them, this year's line-up (22 trained in Britain and 18 in Ireland) have run in more than 1000 races and won 271 of them. Triple Betfair Chase winner Bristol De Mai, a striking grey who has already won his owners in excess of £800,000, heads the 40 who will face the starter, with many hoping to attend the party turned away.
The cut-off point has never been higher, with those boasting an official handicap mark of 144 initially languishing among the reserves before being eliminated at 1pm on Friday. The fluent Welsh Grand National winner, Secret Reprieve, is among those who has found himself surplus to requirements.
Celebrated winners this century include Pineau De Re (rated 143), Auroras Encore (137), Comply Or Die (139), Silver Birch (138), Numbersixvalverde (138), Hedgehunter (144), Amberleigh House (139), Monty’s Pass (139), Bindaree (136), Red Marauder (140) and Papillon (139). Runners-up in the same period have included horses running off marks in the 120s.
It’s quite something to think that, this year, none would have got a look in. But we don't want horses who look tailor-made for the race, like Secret Reprieve, excluded from year to year and so perhaps, going forwards, "win-and-you-are-in" races will be a consideration.
Watch what Pineau De Re, the 2014 National winner, is up to at the age of 18 in retirement
Saturday's spectacular will be poorer for Secret Reprieve's absence, although those who backed him ante-post get their money back. I think there's a case for the winners of the Welsh National and Becher Chase getting an automatic slot at Aintree, plus the winners of the Scottish and Irish Nationals for the following year's running.
The changes, combined with classier cast members, have also led to the dynamic of the race changing.
In days of old, the instruction would be to hunt around on the first circuit and then think about riding a race on the second. Nowadays, jockeys instantly want a decent position and the
pace does not relent, with those loitering out the back or steering a wide course running a high risk of never getting involved.
Since 2013, when the fences were last altered, those racing up near the leaders have been favoured. Auroras Encore, the winner that year, was always close to the heat of the battle, as were Teaforthree (third) and Oscar Time (fourth). It gave us a glimpse of the future.
Pineau De Re, the 2014 winner, was never further back than mid-division, while Many Clouds, the victor 12 months later, was always close-up. Rule The World, who won in 2016, tracked the pace, while Tiger Roll, the winner in 2018 and 2019, didn't give his rivals too much of a headstart, either.
The only horse to have won from off the pace in recent years was the unexposed One For Arthur, in 2017. But for injury, he might have ruled in the race for years.
Perhaps the desire to be up near the front, trading punches from the outset, will eventually prove counter-productive and lead to those ridden more conservatively again having their day.
The seven renewals since 2013 offer only a small pool of evidence, but jockeys may get sucked in by thinking their only chance of winning relies on being near the pace. Collectively, that could lead to the gallop being too frantic and leave the door open for more patiently-ridden horses to pounce on them as they tire.
Have a look at the team behind Vieux Lion Rouge, who will run in a race over the Grand National fences for a tenth time on Saturday. He has won twice and completed every time. Video courtesy of Great British Racing
There are numerous front-runners in Saturday’s race and there has to be a chance they will contrive to damage the chances of each other.
Cloth Cap, the short-priced favourite, has made all for his wins at Newbury and Kelso this season and nobody will be keen for him to have too much rope.
Bristol De Mai and Yala Enki are at their most effective when forcing the pace, while Acapella Bourgeois, Lord Du Mesnil, Mister Malarkey, Cabaret Queen and Magic Of Light also seem to enjoy being in the thick of things from the outset. And five of Minellacelebration’s career wins have been when setting the pace.
Horses, like humans, can be creatures of habit, and some will recoil if you ask them to try something different.
Plenty of jockeys will not want to sit deeper than the middle of the field, and the 11 riding in it for the first time, adrenaline pumping, might be forgiven for being a little too keen to get a proper slice of the early action. With soft ground unlikely (unless someone forgets to turn the taps off) will encourage those at the head of affairs that they have a greater chance of lasting home.
Which jockeys will have the nerve to sit well off the pace and pick their way through? Class Conti, Anibale Fly, Discorama, Canelo and Talkischeap are usually held up, while course specialist Vieux Lion Rouge seemed to enjoy passing most of his rivals when storming home in the Becher Chase in December.
So don’t panic if you like any of that sextet and hear the commentator calling them as being among the back markers in the first half of the race.
Blackmore returns on another Cheltenham Festival winner (Photo: Focusonracing)
The
tactics of Rachael Blackmore aboard the well-fancied
Minella Times will, in particular, be fascinating. The 31-year-old, who took the Cheltenham Festival by storm last month when riding six winners and being crowned top rider, has ridden the JP Mcmanus-owned contender in a variety of ways this season, and he's been receptive to everything.
That gives Blackmore options on a runner who ticks plenty of boxes in her quest to make more history and become the first female jockey to win the race. Good luck trying to identify her in the race itself, though, as seven runners will be sporting McManus's famous gold and green colours. She will be the one in the mostly green cap.
Blackmore will make a bit of history, whatever happens, because a record-equalling three females will be participating with Bryony Frost (Yala Enki) and Tabitha Worsley (Sub Lieutenant) are also taking part. Worsley will be riding a horse trained by her mother, who will be led up by her brother and sister. The family train a handful of other horses. And you know what they say about the National: every winner has a good story behind them.
Those in the media huddle after she won the Foxhunters' at
Aintree a couple of years ago will not question her nerve. She spoke matter-of-factly about returning from a broken back and, at the time, had not long recovered from a fractured collarbone.
Four of the best amateurs in the business - Patrick Mullins, Jamie Codd, Derek O'Connor and Sam Waley-Cohen - also have rides, having had to sit out Cheltenham last month because of rules relating to the pandemic. Codd and Waley-Cohen have each ridden runners-up in the past, but it is Mullins who has the most to anticipate after being called up to replace the injured Paul Townend on leading fancy Burrows Saint.
Mullins' first two rides in the race fell, and he finished last of 19 finishers on his latest attempt in 2019. However, he still has some way to go before matching Tom Scudamore, who has ridden in the race 18 times without success, and Nicky Henderson, the multiple champion trainer, whose 41 runners since 1979 have all lost - nine of them falling at the first. His one ride in the race as a jockey, in 1976, also failed to figure.
Scudamore is unlkely to ever get a better chance - he rides Cloth Cap - but Henderson admits his contender, OK Corral, has not had him "running down to the bookies". But if you are not in it, you cannot win it.
Everything is in place for the 173rd running of the Grand National being a memorable one. It will be fast. It will be furious. May the best horse win.
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