City Of Troy: ten key questions for the 2000 Guineas favourite

Absolutely not. O’Brien likes blueprints and when he finds a formulae that works, then he tends not to deviate. He has won the Guineas a record ten times and all his previous victors - King of Kings (1998), Rock of Gibraltar (2002), Footstepsinthesand (2005), George Washington (2006), Henrythenavigator (2008), Camelot (2012), Gleneagles (2015), Churchill (2017), Saxon Warrior (2018) and Magna Grecia (2019) – have all been making their seasonal reappearances. There was never a chance that we would see in any of the recognised trials this spring. O’Brien will have been content to fine tune him at home (see No 2) and there’s been no suggestion he’s missed any work or had any hiccups in his preparation. On the contrary, there seems bubbling confidence within the camp that the young horse who wowed us last year is ready to scale the heights.

Coolmore posted a 40-second clip of City Of Troy’s morning workout on April 26 on X (formerly Twitter). It was more than likely his last serious piece of work before the big day. It certainly wasn’t like some of those pre-race ambles we saw at Newmarket this month. What were Coolmore’s motivations for posting it? Was it to keep his Fan Club informed? Send a message to would-be rivals? Add to his legend down the line? None of us can be certain, but it made for enjoyable viewing. O’Brien briefly turns interviewer with work rider Dean and we see footage of the colt zooming along, with the trainer and a companion motoring along upside in a car. The trainer describes what his trained eye observes and is clearly more than satisfied. “Happy with that, Aidan?” he is asked at the finish. “Oh, delighted” he replies without hesitation. Coolmore are prolific tweeters, and retweeters, but homemade content like this from them is rare. I scrolled back several weeks and found no other instances. I’d have kept going but there are only so many stallions you can view before everything starts becoming blurry. 

Is the sun yellow? Does night follow day? It’s a formality, isn't it. His three runs last year were all over 7f but he was strong at the finish on each occasion, with Ryan Moore struggling to pull him up. His breeding also points to a mile and more suiting him well. His American sire, Justify, was a Grade One winner at up to a mile-and-a-half, while his dam, Together Forever, landed the Fillies’ Mile. She was a daughter of the mighty Galileo, of course, while his auntie, Forever Together, was an Oaks winner. City Of Troy’s older brother, Bertinelli, is also proven over a mile-and-a-half. Maybe the question should be "will a mile be far enough?".

He was Europe’s champion two-year-old last season and already has an official rating of 125, which is between 3lb and 12lb higher than O’Brien’s past five winners of the 2000 Guineas. His debut win at The Curragh in July hasn’t worked out that well – ten of the 12 rivals he beat are still maidens – but he hammered Haatem in the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket next time and that horse has been a runaway Craven winner this term. The third and fourth have also won around the globe, while Son, beaten about ten lengths into fifth, was not beaten far in the Royal Lodge (won by Ghostwriter) or Greenham (won by Esquire).  City Of Troy was also impressive in the Dewhurst on his final start, winning at the main expense of Alyanaabi, who had previously won the Tattersalls Stakes, and Eben Shadeed, who chased home Haatem in this month’s Craven. The also-rans included Iberian, Array and Indian Run, who between them had had won the Champagne Stakes, Mill Reef Stakes and Acomb. Incidentally, the ground was officially “soft” for the Dewhurst but Timeform assessed it as “good to soft”. 

It cannot be a negative, can it? O’Brien usually fields two or three runners and has run as many as four. Only once this century has he fielded a single challenger, when Roderic O’Connor was tasked with taking on Frankel in 2011. Maybe his trainer had already half-guessed what was going to happen that magical day. O’Brien volunteered that City Of Troy may be his only representative at a media morning in March, so it’s clearly been on his mind for a while. He left in Henry Longfellow, Diego Velazquez and River Tiber at the five-day stagebut all will be standing idle at home when the gates fly open. City Of Troy won his races from the front last year and is clearly uncomplicated. The wise heads at Ballydoyle and Coolmore are clearly satisfied he doesn't needa helping hand. 

You’ve got to be in the glass half-empty camp to believe lightning will strike twice. had a rating of 124 at the end of his two-year-old campaign, having signed off the season with successive Group One victories in the Phoenix Stakes, National Stakes and Dewhurst. He was sent off 4/5 favourite for the 2016 edition, the shortest priced-runner that O’Brien has had in the race, but he found little from two out and ended up beating only one home. His fortunes didn’t improven in three subsequent races, either. Was it simply that Air Fore Blue didn’t train on, or did he develop a physical issue or breathing problem? He wore a first-time tongue-tie at Newmarket and that rung alarm bells. That was then, this is now. 

Yes. O’Brien has fielded the 2000 Guineas favourite on 14 occasions since 1999 but only four of them – George Washington, Gleneagles, Camelot and Magna Grecia - have obliged. His market leaders to be beaten, apart from the odds-on Air Force Blue, include (6/4), One Cool Cat (15/8) and St Nicholas Abbey (Evens). 

No. He’s had six runners in England this month and none have finished closer than third. They include two odds-on shots in Capulet, turned over at 8/13 at Chelmsford, and Chief Little Rock, beaten at 4/5 in the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom. There’s a familiar pattern here. The stable’s runners on these shores in April are generally “sighters”, part of the stable’s B or C Team, or maybe sent over to gain experience or simply dispatched to help wake them up. The bare stats tell you all you need to know. Since 2006, O’Brien has run 75 horses in the UK during April and has had only four winners. It’s invariably a very different story from May onwards. For instance, last year he had 19 runners in May and had six winners. O’Brien’s strike-rate in Ireland this month is about 25 per cent, which is standard for him at this time of year. There have been odds-on disappointments along the way, but none that would have you panicking about the prospects of City Of Troy. 

The  smallest field since Churchill beat nine rivals in 2017 will line up. Ghostwriter, Notable Speech and Night Raider are also undefeated, though none have managed anything like the level of form that City Of Troy has achieved. Ghostwriter is a fine stamp of a horse but there was a bunched finish to the Royal Lodge that he won in September, while Notable Speech and Night Raider have been winning minor races on the all-weather, albeit in the style of smart performers. The clear second favourite is Rosallion, who put his surprise defeat in the Champagne Stakes behind him when landing the Group One Grand Criterium at Longchamp in October. He pegged back the O’Brien-trained Unquestionable that day and that horse went on to land the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. However, Rosallion is an exuberant son of crack sprinter Blue Point and is unraced beyond 7f. He’s got the gears but his fuel gauge might be flashing when it matters most. Of the rest, Task Force is interesting unleashed over a mile. The Frankel colt’s only defeat last term came when runner-up to Vandeek in the Middle Park and you can only think that stepping up in trip is going to benefit him. The Ralph Beckett stable is quiet, though, with the yard having had only one winner (an odds-on chance on the all-weather) from their past 35 runners. 

The usual rules apply. The going, racing position, luck in running and wellbeing of the horse will all be factors. Runners have often split into two or three groups in the Guineas. A level playing field can become unlevel, with Hawk Wing running out of time in the 2002 renewal being Exhibit A when it comes to ending up on the wrong part of the track. It was a decade ago that Night Of Thunder swerved from one side of the course to the other to somehow beat Kingman. The runner-up never lost again, turning the tables in emphatic fashion at Royal Ascot. With goodish ground and a small field likely, it seems reasonable to assume the runners will come down the centre of the course as one. And given City Of Troy races at the head of affairs, it may all become an irrelevance. 

 Almost certainly. Watch above and look out for ten more questions before the Betfred Derby.