Cheltenham Festival tips: the big-race verdicts from RaceiQ

One tool we will be using here is Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP), which uses the in-race sectionals to calculate the speed a horse covers over the last half a mile of a race as a percentage of its overall race speed.

We have also introduced a ‘Lengths Gained Jumping’ (LGJ) model which uses speed metrics to measure every horse’s jumping performance. If you imagine that the average horse jumping a fence records a zero – so that effectively zero is the par figure – we can put a positive or negative number of lengths on every horse’s jump at every fence at a Racing TV track. That enables us to evaluate exactly how their jumping compared to the rest of the field.

Ballyburn looks the right favourite in the Sky Bet Supreme and, though a few of the leading candidates have a feasible alternative target in the Baring Bingham, it’s clear that a strongly-run two miles will suit Willie Mullins' star novice. His jumping has been an asset too, even in defeat at Fairyhouse: 

When he was beaten on his return at Fairyhouse by Firefox, the race turned into a sprint (FSP of 117.66%) which wouldn’t have suited this subsequent two-and-a-half-mile winner at all. When he won back over two miles at the Dublin Racing Festival it was a much more strongly-run race where he finished with an FSP of 99.25%.

Firefox wasn’t suited by two and a half miles in the Lawlor’s of Naas and I believe that his speed will be put to better use back over two miles considering how smart he looked previously.

Jeriko Du Reponet went to Newbury with a big reputation and everyone jumped on him like he would be the next Jonbon. Perhaps for that reason, his slim-margin victories have left people underwhelmed, but the data from those races is fine!

Mystical Power is an interesting contender as he is another who hasn’t run against any of the big guns. Visually he may not have jumped with that much fluency in his first two starts over hurdles, but the data suggests that he was still able to take lengths out of the field:

Tullyhill is my RaceiQ eyecatcher, but for the wrong reasons here. He was very impressive at Punchestown but his jumping wasn’t very good at all, giving away over six lengths to No Flies On Him. He won’t get away with that at Cheltenham unless he is very special!

As regards the potential winner, Jeriko Du Reponet - unlike Ballyburn and Firefox - hasn't run against any of his Supreme rivals. He may not have won by much, but he is still unbeaten and looks the value play.

I’ve been longing to see Arkle one-two El Fabiolo and Jonbon against each other this season but unfortunately that hasn’t happened.

Jonbon came back from his break looking closer to the finished product, jumping far slicker than last year, but seems to have regressed since. He did gain more lengths on Edwardstone at Sandown, but has become sloppy again when he meets a fence wrong so has lost more speed on average with each run this season:

Although El Fabiolo didn’t jump badly in the Dublin Chase at Leopardstown, compared to the more experienced Gentleman De Mee he showed that he could still improve:

In last year’s Arkle, El Fabiolo gained an advantage of 3.41 lengths over Jonbon through his jumping and, from what we’ve seen this season, it’s hard to see why that won’t happen again.

Edwardstone, on the other hand, has shown how consistently good his jumping is. He has bounced right back to form this season when he’s run over two miles and jumped his opposition into the ground with a change of tactics last time. Tom Cannon set strong, even fractions at Newbury, finishing unchallenged with an FSP of 101.45%

The RaceiQ eyecatcher is Jonbon’s Clarence House conqueror Elixir De Nutz. He doesn’t have the class if all three of the above turn up at their best, but he has been very impressive in the jumping department this term (Cheltenham +6.55 LGJ, Kempton +4.13, Newbury +7.00, Exeter +8.57).

Edwardstone looked back to his best when making all at Newbury. In a game of fine margins, his peak form is so close to Jonbon and El Fabiolo that if either of them get caught out by their inexperience he will be there to take advantage of it.

This is an interesting race since we have only seen favourite Banbridge once since moving out of novice company, but what a run that was. He was impressive when beating a race-fit Pic D’Orhy at Kempton - who then boosted the form in the Ascot Chase last month – jumping really well in the process:

Some people questioned whether Pic D’Orhy would have won without his mistake at the last, but he actually only lost 1.44 lengths at that obstacle so, in real terms, he wasn’t beaten 1.75 lengths just through that error. That being said, I do appreciate that losing 5.67mph at that stage in the race (Banbridge -3.04mph) will take a big toll on your energy.

Envoi Allen jumped well when winning this race a year ago, gaining 4.90 lengths on the field through jumping alone (Shiskin +3.36 LGJ, Hitman +3.86 LGJ). He hasn’t run to that level since but shouldn’t be ignored if back to his best after missing recent engagements.

The horse that has everyone scratching their heads here is Stage Star. As we know, when he’s right, he’s great, but when things don’t go so well, he struggles, as the LGJ data shows:

He was beaten by Banbridge at Aintree last year, but he looked flat like he did on New Year’s Day. And let’s not forget he was the horse that lost -9.86 mph through ‘that’ mistake at the last at Cheltenham in November yet only conceded 2.2 lengths to the runner-up as he was such a fresh horse.

My RaceiQ eyecatcher is Ga Law if supplemented. He has looked a totally different horse this season and, while his jumping used to be questionable, it’s now proving a real asset.

Last year he was only beaten 9.5 lengths in this race, giving away -1.20 lengths through his jumping, but his recent form has been a complete U-turn: at Newbury he recorded +11.10 Lengths Gained Jumping and at Cheltenham +15.55.

In sum, I think we can expect better from Stage Star in this race as Paul Nicholls is very talented at getting a horse back to form for Cheltenham, but Banbridge did not just win at Kempton because of Pic D’Orhy giving away 1.44 lengths at the last. He’s a rock solid jumper, the form has been franked and he should be very hard to beat.

It’s Gold Cup round two for Galopin Des Champs and he’s looking well placed to retain his crown. He’s been a funny horse to follow on our Lengths Gained Jumping journey as he’s a very slow jumper, consistently giving ground away to his rivals, yet still has the engine to make that back and beat them impressively.

In the John Durkan he lost -15.80 lengths through his jumping compared to Fastorslow, and ultimately you can say he was beaten because of it over an inadequate trip. Yet, he also conceded -12.05 LGJ to Fastorslow last time but – back over a more suitable trip - managed to beat him decisively.

The only time he’s gained ground through his jumping was at Christmas (+9.84 LGJ), but I think that is because he galloped his rivals into the ground so easily.

In contrast, Fastorslow consistently gains an advantage with his speed through the air. As well as the two examples I have listed above, he also gained a massive +16.55 LGJ advantage on the field through his jumping in the Ultima here last year. That run shows us how much he enjoys this track, too, only going down by a neck to the subsequent Grand National winner Corach Rambler.

Shishkin has also been a funny one to watch this season - for obvious reasons! People may have lost a little bit of faith, but the data suggests that he is still performing very well. His jumping is brilliant (when he doesn’t trip himself up) and his recent metrics read:

The sectionals also suggest that he stayed strongly to the line at Newbury last month, recording excellent closing furlongs of 14.85s, 14.90s, 14.95s and 15.03s.

Hewickis one of the RaceiQ team’s ‘Lengths Gained Darlings’ from when the project started. This is because even though he is not that fast, he is so slick with his jumping that it is really his strength - he’s bagged the top spot for least Average Speed Lost and quickest Average Speed Recovery Time. His LGJ values are not bad either, even when he has fallen!

Galopin Des Champs gave away -2.64 LGJ against the field last March but still won in a canter. This year’s Gold Cup looks stronger at this stage, with the quicker jumpers Fastorslow and Shishkin both more than capable of an upset, but I still can’t see them beating Willie Mullins’ star over this trip despite his slower jumping.