Big-race guide and tip: Snellings Norfolk National

Tom Thurgood picked out Tommie Beau last year and casts an eye at the latest running of the Snellings Norfolk National, one of the annual highlights from Fakenham. Enjoy all the action on Tuesday live on Racing TV.

A 13-year-old won the inaugural race in 2016 while an 11-year-old won in 2018, but generally siding with younger chasers has proven best in the Snellings Norfolk National.

Horses aged 10 or older have comprised 40% of the total runners in the six runnings but have finished in the first four on just six occasions, or 25% of the time.

Although a small sample size, the record of seven-year-olds in this is quite eye-catching: three have won and another three have finished either second or third, with that age group hitting top-three finishes 33% of the time from just 15% of the total runners.

Another seven-year-old, Washed Ashore, looked the likely winner in the 2018 race when falling at the final fence.

Midnight Mary is the only seven-year-old in the field this year.

Chasing experience is no harm to going well in this race but horses with a notable abundance of chase runs generally don’t perform so well in this.

Horses with 20 or more previous runs over fences have made up 42% of the runner so far but have hit the top three places just 28% of the time, while chasers with 15 outings under Rules over fences in Britain or less have finished in the first four 58% of the time from 48% of the total runners.

Slight caution is advised for chasers with a particular abundance of runs over fences, with the six to run here with 30 or more Rules runs over fences contributing a fortunate winner in 2019 (no others placed).

This year’s most experienced chasers under Rules are D’Jango (47) Flying Verse (39) and Wake Up Early (26).

While we’ve only had six runnings, the early evidence perhaps suggests that it may be hard to come back here and genuinely figure after previously running in the race.

Six have tried and Emerald Rose won in 2018, but the best finish otherwise is fifth and they include some horses at fairly short prices, including last year’s favourite Game Line. Tommie Beau and Flying Verse are the runners back for more this year.

The highest-rated horse to yet the contest the Snellings Norfolk National had a rating of 127, while 17 of the 67 total runners (25%) had a mark of 120 or higher. Those horses have finished in the top four places on 10 occasions (42%).

This year’s handicap is more compressed, but top-weight Duc Du Beauchene has to give away plenty of weight to most of these from a mark of 121. If recent years prove a reliable guide he’s still in line to go pretty well.

Five of the six winners finished in the first three on their most recent start, while the last two victors came here off the back of wins. In the last five runnings, 66% of the horses in the first three finished in the top three on their most recent outing.

Duc De Beauchene and Midnight Mary are the obviously in-form horses in this year’s line-up, while Flying Verse was similarly a runner-up last time.

The Snellings Norfolk National offers decent prize money to chasers at this more modest level and in-form horses are perhaps more pronounced at this lower grade.

Despite the decent turn-out, not many look especially compelling on recent form and Duc De Beauchene and Midnight Mary look the two to focus on and are quite hard to split.

But at the bigger price, MIDNIGHT MARY gets the nod. Her form may be in mares-only events and more concerning is that she may have competition for the lead over this marathon trip, but she represents the Bryony Frost and Lucy Wadham combination which is often potent at this track and her form over 3m3f at Sedgefield gives a bit more confidence that she’ll last this trip better than her main market rival. Fergus Gillard takes over from Jack Tudor on that one now.

I’ll have a small reverse forecast on the pair, too.