Betfred St Leger: RaceiQ clues and predicted finishing order

Aidan O’Brien has achieved many things in racing, but he has never trained the winner of the Betfred St Leger three years in succession. And he’s in good company.

You must travel back 185 years to find the last trainer, John Scott, to achieve the feat. His hat-trick hero was Launcelot, who went off 7-4 favourite, although there was a degree of controversy as many believed the runner-up, Maroon, representing the same trainer and owner, would have won had his jockey been, let's say, a little busier.

Launcelot suffered an injury, preventing him running in another race the following day. Times were very different back then. Whoever wins on Saturday is likely to be wrapped up in cotton wool until next spring.

Scott ended up winning a record 16 editions of the St Leger, a tally that even O’Brien may struggle to overhaul.

He’s Livin' On A Prayer and only halfway there, via Milan (2001), Brian Boru (2003), Scorpion (2005), Leading Light (2013), Capri (2017), Kew Gardens (2018), Continuous (2023) and Jan Brueghel (2024).

But O'Brien has landed the past two editions and is a short price to at least join the elite St Leger hat-trick club as he’s responsible for half of the eight runners, including the market leaders Scandinavia and Lambourn. I’m not sure he will pull it off, with another Irish-trained runner making most appeal at the odds on offer.

RaceiQ was not around 185 years ago but it now gives us extra clues, including Scandinavia having a significant stride in him, which is never a bad weapon when you have more than 14 furlongs to cover. Here's my predicted finishing order, with some additional data thrown into the mix.

Best 0-20mph: 2.78sec. Top Speed: 39.38mph. Maximum stride (this year): 7.93 metres. Highest Finishing Speed Percentage: 108.23% (2nd). Best odds: 5-1.

Carmers has come a long way in a short space of time, given that he was unraced as a two-year-old and only made his debut four months ago. In that way, he's not dissimilar to Logician (2019) and Jan Brueghel (2024), who took the St leger after being unraced as juveniles.

Like that pair, he has improved in chunks, looking every inch a candidate for the final Classic of the year when landing the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot in June, when he had Furthur, Rahiebb and Scandinavia behind. It was a bunch finish, but he appeared to idle in front and became the first winner of the race to dip under three minutes, a notable feather in his cap given that recent winners have included Stradivarius, Kew Gardens, Eldar Eldarov and Illinois. The RaceiQ Time Index was a striking 9.3, when the meeting average was 7.8.

Carmers was then given a two-month break and, despite losing his unbeaten record, ran another solid trial when a staying-on second to Pride Of Arras in the Great Voltigeur at York last time. The combination of a drop in trip and muddling gallop was no help to him, but he stuck willingly to his task and ended up finishing ahead of Stay True and Lambourn.

So, he's already beaten the bulk of the opposition and is capable of better yet. Moving back up in distance is sure to suit and Doncaster’s long straight looks tailor-made for him. 

Best 0-20mph: 2.48sec. Top Speed: 40.52mph. Maximum stride: 8.23 metres. Highest FSP: 111.48% (won). Best odds: 5-4. 

His form has taken off since being equipped with cheekpieces on his past two starts. He was relentless when winning the Bahrain Trophy by 8½ lengths at Newmarket in July and then went to the next level when upstaging two crack older stayers in Illinois and Sweet William in the Goodwood Cup, albeit when in receipt of plenty of weight. He showed a potent blend of speed and stamina that day, being quickest in each of the final three furlongs.

Before being equipped with headgear, the long-striding Justify colt had not looked anything out of the ordinary, although his keeping-on fifth from a wide trip in the Queen’s Vase was eye-catching.

He’s a typical improver for his yard, with a reproduction of either of his past two efforts sure to put him bang in the picture. But at the prices, Carmers, who had him behind at Ascot, makes more appeal. 

Best 0-20mph: 2.54sec. Top Speed: 40.48mph. Maximum stride: 7.63 metres. Highest FSP: 107.99% (won). Best odds: 14-1.

Upped his game when splitting Carmers and Rahiebb in the Queen’s Vase and showed that was no fluke when making short work of older opposition in the Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury last time.

He proved he was not just a stayer that day, being quickest in each of the final five furlongs of a race that was run at slow early tempo. In between those runs, the grey ran poorly behind Scandinavia in the Bahrain Trophy, but that run was too bad to be true. 

Best 0-20mph: 2.46sec. Top Speed: 39.65mph. Maximum stride: 8.06 metres. Highest FSP: 107.51% (won). Best odds: 3-1. 

It’s odd to think that the winner of the Derby and Irish equivalent is not even favourite, but that’s the case with Lambourn after his lacklustre fifth under a penalty in the Great Voltigeur at York last time. Better paddock watchers than me suggested he was carrying some condition after a mini break, but perhaps a season that began in late March is catching up with him, or maybe his Classic-winning form just isn’t that solid. 

The cards fell his way at Epsom, when he was allowed to dictate steady fractions on rain-softened ground, and then, at The Curragh, he was all out to repel a stablemate who had previously been beaten in a handicap off a mark of 92.

His connections do not usually run their Derby winners in this race (Camelot was an exception in 2012, when seeking the Triple Crown) and that’s also a negative for me, for all that stamina looks Lambourn’s forte. 

Best 0-20mph: 2.35sec. Top Speed: 39.83mph. Maximum stride: 7.8 metres. Highest FSP: 111.46% (2nd). Best odds: 25-1. 

Looked a plausible St Leger contender when a staying-on third to Carmers in the Queen’s Vase, when things did not go his way, having previously faced a thankless task trying to concede 8lb to Merchant in a handicap at York’s Dante meeting.

He did not fire in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood last time although that was a messy race - there was a standing start because of a storm - on softer ground. This test should play to his strengths, but others are more persuasive. 

Best 0-20mph: 2.54sec. Top Speed: 39.51mph. Maximum stride: 7.94 metres. Highest FSP: 111.79% (won). Best odds: 33-1. 

There was plenty to like about the way this progressive Frankel colt edged home in the Melrose at York last time, although he was all out to win off a mark of 93 and he’s going to have to find another significant chunk of improvement to trouble the principals.

He had previously been game to defeat Pendragon (gave 5lb) at Sandown and it will be interesting to see how that horse fares in the Doncaster Cup on Friday. 

Best 0-20mph: 2.81sec. Top Speed: 40.02mph. Maximum stride: 8.18 metres. Highest FSP: 108.60% (2nd). Best odds: 8-1.  

Another who was unraced as a juvenile and, having had only three starts, we are still scratching the surface with him, not least because he’s yet to run in anything like a true-run race. 

The Galileo colt (he will be his great sire’s final runner in a Classic for three-year-olds) looked a good prospect when winning on his Leopardstown debut in April and the following month was touched off by Puppet Master, his stablemate, in the Lingfield Derby Trial. The winner has subsequently been disappointing. 

He must have had a setback after that run as he was then absent more than three months before reappearing in the Great Voltigeur and finishing a close fourth, having briefly hit the front a furlong from home. 

Stay True seemed to get outstayed at York, having been well positioned, and stamina could be an issue for him in a race where plenty of his rivals have assured staying power. The dam’s side of his pedigree also raises question marks as to him getting home. 

Best 0-20mph: 2.53sec. Top Speed: 41.53mph. Maximum stride: 7.87 metres. Highest FSP: 111.34% (2nd). Best odds: 66-1. 

His sire, Camelot, looked to have the Triple Crown at his mercy before coming up short in the 2012 edition of this race, while one of his smart siblings, Capri, took the spoils in 2017. He’s open to improvement racing beyond ten furlongs for the first time but is impossible to fancy after his defeat in a maiden at Navan last weekend. Looks to have been left in as a possible pacemaker for his better fancied stablemates.