Betfred St Leger: guide and predicted finishing order

Safety in numbers. It’s generally the way of Aidan O’Brien and Coolmore, and the Betfred St Leger at Doncaster on Saturday is going to be no exception.

Three of the seven runners for the final Classic of the season are trained by O’Brien - Illinois, Jan Brueghel and Grosvenor Square - and they dominate the betting.

It says much for the strength in depth at Ballydoyle that long-time ante-post favourite Los Angeles is regarded surplus to requirements. He would have been the clear market leader had he got the green light to run but instead will be in action in the Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown. 

“We came here thinking that he was going to turn into a Leger horse, but Ryan said he has way more class than that,” O’Brien said after Los Angeles had defied a penalty in the Great Voltigeur at York last time, having previously landed the Irish Derby.

It was a comment made just after the heart of the battle but did give us a snapshot of how the master trainer views the St Leger. “Class” horses, it seems, are not a prerequisite.

And when you glance at his seven previous winners, you can kind of see what he means. They have all been good horses, naturally, but more rugged stayers than “wow” horses. The past four arrived with official ratings of 110, 120, 116 and 115, an average of 115.

That augurs well for his Class of 2024, as his trio boast ratings of 116, 114 and 113. And with the exception of Jan Brueghel, they have already proven themselves over the St Leger trip.

Here’s a guide to the final field for a race that falls under the QIPCO British Champions Series umbrella. 

Official Rating: 110. Timeform Rating: 122. Odds: 20/1. 

They say a leopard cannot change his spots and I’ve found it hard to trust Deira Mile after he put up a roguish display at Chelmsford around this time last year and got beaten at long odds-on. That was his final run for Charlie Johnston and, in his defence, the colt has since looked more straightforward for Owen Burrows, finishing fourth in the Derby and going close in a messy four-runner race at Windsor last time. His sire, Camelot, had the Triple Crown at his mercy when beaten in 2012. 

What they say – jockey  Jason Watson: “His owners the Green Team and Ahmad Al Shaikh have been great to me this year and fortunately I’ve had quite a bit of luck for them. It’s a decent ride to pick up and I was happy with how he felt when I went down and sat on him on Saturday. He’s a decent horse and he’s been a credit to everyone involved with him, so we are looking for a big run. Ahmad has had plenty of luck with horses outrunning their odds in these big races and we are hopefully going there with a bit of a chance.” 

Official Rating: 112. Timeform Rating: 129. Odds: 5/1. 

His half-brother, Santiago, was fourth in the 2020 St Leger and he’s also going to be hard to keep out of the frame after his 20-length romp in the Irish St Leger Trial at The Curragh last time. I wouldn’t get too carried away by the form of that that wide-margin front-running triumph, but it did highlight what a stout stayer he is, and how dangerous he can be from the front. He had also raced in a clear lead for a long way when splitting Tower Of London and Vauban in the Curragh Cup on his penultimate start, looking sure to collect when still clear a furlong out only for the winner to swoop in the closing stages. Tower Of London had landed the Dubai Gold Cup earlier in the year (with such as Trawlerman and Giavellotto behind), while Vauban has since taken the Lonsdale Cup. So that form stands close inspection. No doubt, Gavin Ryan will again invite him to take the race by the scruff of its neck in the early stages and, if so, it will be fascinating to see how much rope the combination are afforded. As O’Brien observed after his latest run, “it's hard to know what to do against this horse, do you follow him or don’t you?”. All-the-way St Leger winners are a rarity, but Scorpion did it for O’Brien in 2005. Ryan is 0/46 when riding in Britain in the past five seasons but has twice been a runner-up at Doncaster, from only four visits.

Official Rating: 113. Timeform Rating: 130. Odds: 2/1. 

His siblings include Danedream, the 2011 Arc winner, and Venice Beach, who didn’t figure in the 2017 St Leger after being runner-up in the Great Voltigeur. Illinois also finished second in that York contest but will surely be making impact in this. He stayed on stoutly to split Los Angeles, his stablemate, and King’s Gambit (who was getting 3lb from him) at York. That run was hard to fault as a trial and his previous two outings – when winning the Queen’s Vase before chasing home Sosie (third in the French Derby) in the Grand Prix de Paris – also pointed to Doncaster being a perfect fit for him. He wandered around a bit in front at Royal Ascot but connections still regarded him as immature at the time. Illinois is more the finished article now and he would be third Queen’s Vase winner to take this in six years after Kew Gardens (2018) and Eldar Eldarov (2022). Wayne Lordan has had four spins in the race, finishing 2303. The combination look worthy favourites. 

Official Rating: 114. Timeform Rating: 127p. Odds: 3/1. 

Jan Brueghel is a big boy and perhaps it was no surprise we didn’t see him for the first time until late May of this year. The Galileo colt has been playing catch-up even since and there’s been a sense of him learning on the job. An eight-length debut win has been the precursor to narrow Group Three victories at The Curragh and at Goodwood. In the latter, in the Gordon Stakes, he was off the bridle a long way out but kept pulling out more to master Bellum Justum by a neck. It wasn’t pretty, but he was conceding 3lb to the runner-up, who had previously finished a creditable third to Jayarebe at Royal Ascot. Jan Brueghel has surely got more improvement in him and what we don’t know is how much more he’s progressed at home in the past seven weeks. Will he be streetwise enough, or have the tactical speed? There’s only one way to find out, but it might not be next year until we see him at his peak. He's a great spare ride for Sean Levey, who has ridden for O'Brien in the past two renewals: fifth on Emily Dickinson (16/1) in 2022 and ninth on Alexandroupolis (40/1) last year.

Official Rating: 115. Timeform Rating: 128. Odds: 7/1. 

Sunway has always been held in high regard and he signed off last season by winning the Criterium International at Saint-Cloud. That can be a softish backend Group One, although the runner-up did his bit for the form when a close third in the French 2000 Guineas. Sunway has been unable to get his head in front this campaign, but he has been highly tried, chasing home Los Angeles in the Irish Derby before finding older opposition in the King George too hot to handle, when admittedly meeting some interference on the bend. The way he stuck to his task at The Curragh, plus to a lesser extent to the way he plugged on at Ascot, suggests this longer trip could be within his range, but others look more certain stayers. I’m also wary of the fact that he’s been on the go since early spring and been asked some tough questions. He’s David Menuisier’s first runner in the race and Christophe Soumillon (2/2 for the trainer this year) travels over for the ride, as Oisin Murphy is away in Canada. Soumillon’s only previous appearance in the St Leger came in 2007 when sixth on Macarthur. 

What they say - David Menuisier: “I’m trying not to think about it. We try not to get ahead of ourselves, as we’ve burned our fingers before and it will be hard to win, with Aidan (O’Brien) sending some proper horses, and a filly (You Got To Me) who could be good too, but it’s a challenge we are keen to grasp. The only thing I was disappointed about at Ascot is that he was nearly brought down on the bend, and I thought it was a good effort in the circumstances. If you see the incident from different angles, including the JockeyCam, it’s a bit scary. Genuinely James (Doyle) said he really hung on by one leg, and Sunway lost all momentum when it mattered. James then left him alone, and he picked up again by himself. He’s since had a mini break and a bit of a chance to grow into himself, and I’d like to think he’s in the best possible shape. I think if anything the extra distance could be a plus, although he’s not really bred for it. He always looks as if he’s finishing his races well, and a lot of horses by Galiway do well over jumps.” 

Official Rating: 95. Timeform Rating: 115p. Odds: xx. 

He’s got plenty on his plate stepping up from handicaps but, on the plus side, he won over course and distance at the start of June (when Danny Tudhope was in the saddle) and was an eye-catcher in the Melrose at York last time when a staying-on fourth to Tabletalk from off the pace. There’s more to come from this son of Crystal Ocean (second in the 2017 St Leger) and he will no doubt try and pick up some pieces from off the pace. But you need to take quite a leap to imagine him being good enough to muscle into the frame.  Trainer Andrew Balding is 0/10 with his runners in the race, although Phoenix Reach (2003) and Berkshire Rocco (2020) have made the frame. 

Official Rating: 113. Timeform Rating: 131. Odds: xx. 

Connections of the Irish Oaks winner splashed out £50,000 to supplement her on Monday, so it seems safe to assume she’s taken her subsequent keeping-on second in the Yorkshire Oaks in her stride. She landed quite a punt at The Curragh, when equipped with a first-time tongue-tie, and was perhaps a little unlucky not to confirm her superiority over Content at York, as she was asked to come from further back and also raced away from her. This will be her first race against the boys but a bigger niggle is the trip, for all that she clearly stays 12f well. She’s not hinted that a stiffer test is what she needs, and her half-brother Ziggy didn’t get home in the Ebor last time, having previously shown solid form over a mile and a half. She has clearly earned a crack at this, though, and Ralph Beckett was responsible for the last mare to lift this prize in Simple Verse, back in 2015, who also had to be supplemented. He had also previously gone close with two other fillies in Look Here (third in 2008) and Talent (second in 2013). 

What they say - Ralph Beckett: “She’s in good form - in really good shape - and we felt that the St Leger was a good fit, especially as she’s a filly who seems to like good ground, or faster, which it looks as if she might get at Doncaster but probably wouldn’t get if we waited for QIPCO British Champions Day. She stays very well now, and she came home really strongly in the Yorkshire Oaks.” 

The final Classic of the year revolves around the O’Brien trio, who all look stout stayers but have such different profiles. Catch-me-if-you-can tactics again look on the cards for front-running Grosvenor Square and then you’ve got Illinois, who has had a textbook build-up, and raw new kid on the block Jan Brueghel. The most solid, for my money, is Illinois, which is reflected by the betting. It’s impossible to see him not running his race. The two previous Group One winners in the race are in the home team in the shape of Sunway and You Got To Me. But neither are guaranteed to stay.