Ante-post tip: a 25-1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe fancy

Now that the dust has settled on the recent Arc Trials, I have taken a closer look at the ante-post market for the ParisLongchamp showpiece on October 5 and I think there is some value to be had.

Last year's runner-up Aventure, recent winner of the Prix Vermeille, heads the market along with Minnie Hauk, but their prices look on the skinny side to me at 4-1, and the only other horse at single-figure odds is Croix Du Nord, who only just held off Daryz in a Group Three on Sunday, whilst narrow Hamilton Listed winner Nahrann was only a length and a quarter behind them both.

I thought Cualificar's effort to win the Prix Niel last weekend on his first try at the trip was worth upgrading slightly, as Andre Fabre's three-year-old did not get the cleanest run through and did well to rundown the leader Bay City Roller in a steadily run race. He is quoted at 16-1 for the Arc.

However, one horse that has comfortably beaten him over a mile and a quarter this season, and should be even better over a mile and a half, is Alohi Alii.

The three-year-old colt is still a best-priced 25-1 for the Arc after a sparkling display in the Group Two Prix Guillaume d'Ornano, a race won this decade by Economics, Ace Impact, Al Hakeem, Dubai Honour and Mishriff.

Christophe Lemaire's mount made all the running in this year's renewal and quickly put the race to bed with a smart turn of foot, leaving Rashabar and Cualificar over three and a half lengths in arrears.

This was also Alohi Alii's first start since April, so he hardly had an advantage of race fitness, quite the opposite. It is also worth remembering that Cualificar had gone close to landing the French Derby previously.

Whilst Croix Du Nord clearly showed more in Japan, as did fellow Japanese contender and recent Prix Foy winner Byzantine Dream, Alohi Alii looks as if he is still improving and could just be better suited by European racing.

This horse showed his liking for soft ground last time out and his trainer Hiroyasu Tanaka reported after his win at Deauville that he would head straight to the Arc, and that he thought he would improve for the step up in trip (he is by a top-class middle distance performer in Duramente).

He is unlikely to get as easy a lead in the Arc of course, and it will require another step forward, but there are not many front runners or high-class colts at the head of the market in this year's race and, if he turns up in 20 day's time, I find it hard to see him going off at 25-1.