The 2023 Cheltenham Festival: Placepot picks for day one
Having a crack at the bet where you don't necessarily have to find any winners to be a winner? Here's a suggestion as to how to navigate the six legs at Cheltenham on Tuesday.
Leg 1: 1.30pm
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IL ETAIT TEMPS (No 8) appeared to be beaten fair and square by Facile Vega at Leopardstown in late-December, but despite some iffy hurdling he was much the best horse when reversing the form at the same venue last month (where High Definition unseated).
Facile Vega’s bubble was burst last time, and the criticism of the overly aggressive ride looked somewhat misplaced, but the market suggests the son of six-time Festival winner Quevega will bounce back here.
But I'd rather place my faith in MARINE NATIONALE (10) as a second selection. The bare form of his Royal Bond win doesn’t jump out, but the way he quickened after a mistake at the final hurdle, does. The unbeaten Chasing Fire is respected, but the Tolworth winner Tahmuras looks the pick of the British team.
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Leg 2: 2.10
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The recent rain shouldn’t inconvenience either of Jonbon or EL FABIOLO (3) who both seem to be blessed with plenty of stamina as well as class. Marginal preference is for El Fabiolo who only has half a length to find with Supreme runner-up Jonbon on their Aintree hurdles run last season, where he was hampered at a crucial stage, and he looked a little bit special when recording a commanding Irish Arkle win last time.
Admittedly, the strong pace there seemed to suit him best, but the same scenario could be on the cards here given the presence once more of his tearaway stablemate Dysart Dynamo. Hold-up performer SAINT ROI (7) unseated early last time but his Festival record includes a ready win in the 2020 County Hurdle and a solid third to Honeysuckle in last year’s Champion Hurdle.
Leg 3: 2.50
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He may have more weight this year, and be worse off at the weights with several of those he beat, including Oscar Elite (third) and Tea Clipper (fourth), but CORACH RAMBLER (10) looks sure to give it a good go as he bids to emulate Un Temps Pour Tout who won back-to-back renewals in 2016 and 2017.
FASTORSLOW (6) took a big step forward when upped in trip at this meeting last year, and more of the same is likely over this new distance for his shrewd connections, while Leopardstown winner The Goffer is also feared given how strongly he stayed on last time, for all his best form is over shorter. The in-form duo of Into Overdrive and Monbeg Genius also make the shortlist, while Nassalam caught the eye when third at this venue on New Year’s Day.
Leg 4: 3.30
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It's time to take a view - the sort of view that could make a massive difference to the dividend of the Placepot, as I'm leaving Constitution Hill out here, with STATE MAN (5) and VAUBAN (6) put in instead.
Sure, he destroyed his rivals in last year’s Supreme, but while he has beaten last year’s Champion Hurdle runner-up Epatante twice this term, he is yet to face anything of the quality of the Willie Mullins pair.
In reality, two of the first three in the betting will all likely place, but if there are any mishaps, then it makes sense to leave out the horse that will be most popular with other Placepot players.
State Man was backed as if he couldn’t lose (and he didn’t) in the County Hurdle at this meeting last year. His book of form this season, including two beatings of Vauban, looks very solid and he could get the run of the race from the front.
Last year’s Triumph winner Vauban could get closer here, mind you, given he should be ridden more prominently than has been the case this term. I Like To Move It has lots to find with State Man on their County run.
Leg 5: 4.10
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There’s a nagging doubt that this trip on soft ground might not see dual Champion Hurdle winner Honeysuckle at her best so she is reluctantly opposed.
SHEWEARSITWELL's (9) defeat of Queens Brook has been boosted by the runner-up since, when she beat Brandy Love, and it means she doesn’t have anything to find on the formbook with Marie’s Rock who beat that same rival when winning this race 12 months ago.
Echoes In Rain is respected but isn’t a guaranteed stayer over this trip, while connections of Theatre Glory will have been cursing the weather since supplementing the good-ground mare. In contrast, it will suit the second selection LOVE ENVOI (5) who was beaten by Brandy Love after winning at this meeting, but who has looked a more formidable opponent in two starts this term.
Leg 6: 4.50
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Following a third to stablemate Gala Marceau in the Grade 1 Spring Hurdle, Tekao’s handicap mark looks a workable one, a comment that also applies to stablemate Risk Belle who was sent off a short-priced favourite for a strong handicap at Leopardstown in February (fell at the fifth), but a chance is taken on the fellow JP McManus-owned SUNDIAL (20), a winner on the flat for Aidan O’Brien. His latest run at Punchestown wasn’t threatening but first-time cheekpieces could bring improvement.
Sir Allen has progressed with each start and along with Morning Soldier, Byker, Jazzy Matty and METAMORPHEUS (11), who chased him home last time, rates a big danger. The most interesting is Metamorpheus who looked the least suited by the way the race panned out, coming from further back than most. French recruit Bad is also a fascinating contender on his British debut.
Tote Placepot Perm for Tuesday:
64 lines (2x2x2x2x2x2)
Leg 1: 8 Il Etait Temps, 10. Marine Nationale
Leg 2: 3 El Fabiolo, 7 Saint Roi
Leg 3: 6 Fastorslow, 10 Corach Rambler
Leg 4: 5 State Man, 6 Vauban
Leg 5: 5 Love Envoi, 9 Shewearsitwell
Leg 6: 11 Metamorpheus, 20 Sundial
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