Ross Millar: my Monday tips and four at big prices for Cheltenham
Our Monday tipster Ross Millar likes three runners from Taunton and, on the eve of the Festival, nomimates a fancy at double-figure odds for each day of the Cheltenham Festival. Enjoy every moment live on Racing TV!
The wait is nearly over; the Cheltenham Festival is little more than a day away.
In a break from the usual format, I'm substituting the normal review of the weekend for one selection for each day of the Festival - with the small caveat that they need to be a double-figure price.
Before that, there is a nice Monday card from Taunton to enjoy and I have three selections. Enjoy the week!
2.50 Taunton: Mardoof
Yes, him again.
Regular followers of these selections will have a frustrating memory of him narrowly failing to overturn the odds-on Klitschko when a selection at Plumpton last time.
I’m confident there isn’t a horse of that calibre in this assignment, and that Sean Houlihan - on his second spin aboard this gelding - can get Mitchell Hunt’s consistent performer a deserved victory.
3.25 Taunton: Frenchy Du Large
Good to Soft ground and this 3m4f trip could well prove his optimal conditions.
Frenchy Du Large finished third under Robbie Dunne at this track last time in a somewhat puzzling performance over three miles. He appeared to get outpaced down the back straight and then looked to be running on empty behind a runaway leader between the final two fences, but the arrival upsides of the eventual winner - who came from a long way back – seemed to re-invigorate him in the closing stages and he stayed on powerfully to the line, suggesting that a step up in trip might well see him in a better light.
Frenchy Du Large can run out a welcome winner for Venetia Williams as she looks to rediscover some form heading into Cheltenham.
5.05 Taunton: Ingennio
Richard Hobson’s five-year old made a promising start to his handicap career last time, staying on well into second place over two miles.
He was off the bridle from an early stage at Huntingdon and the power with which he finished strongly suggests these extra three furlongs will suit him well – I’m confident he’d have won last time if afforded another 100 yards.
Gavin Sheehan has enjoyed a fine season and, to me, looks to be riding with more confidence than I’ve seen in him for a number of seasons. He has a number of good rides booked for Cheltenham and can get his week (and ours) off to the best possible start here.
Four Festival picks at double-figure odds
TUESDAY
2.50 Ultima Handicap Chase: Monbeg Genius Price: 14-1
Jonjo O’Neill had three in this race at the initial entry stage and Monbeg Genius has been on my radar for this contest for some time, so I was delighted to see him declared.
This strapping son of Shantou has progressed nicely with each run and posted two impressive victories at Chepstow on his last two starts. The form of the latest win has been well boosted and he was value for far more than the winning margin of just over a length there, as rider Jonjo O’Neill Jnr was very measured with the jumping over the last three fences and Monbeg Genius galloped powerfully through the line. The runner-up Stormy Flight was a wide-margin winner on his next start and to my eye should have won on his latest start when receiving an over-confident ride at Wincanton.
I’m sure Monbeg Genius is better than his mark of 140 and, providing he copes with the hustle and bustle of this large field, he can go very close.
WEDNESDAY
2.50 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle: Captain Conby Price: 12-1
He’s been remarkably consistent this season, with two seconds and a third from his three starts. He's certainly not 'unexposed' then - while the UK handicapper has taken no chances either by applying a ‘6lb Irish tax’ - but history tells us that, in contrast to some of the other Festival handicap hurdles, this can be a race where unexposed novices fail and the more seasoned campaigners can prevail.
Captain Conby's latest run at Punchestown caught the eye when he was held up in a race where the winner San Salvador was ridden more prominently. His finishing effort was striking. He can land this competitive handicap if he is ridden more prominently, as when a fine second to the talented but ill-fated Eric Bloodaxe on his seasonal reappearance at Fairyhouse.
THURSDAY
5.30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Cup Handicap Chase: Rapper Price: 25-1
There is a huge advantage to having a top-class rider on your side in these amateur contests. Names like Patrick Mullins, Jamie Codd and the like are the obvious ones and it’s fair to say the standard of the Irish amateur is largely superior to that of their British rivals.
That said, I’ve been enormously impressed by Alice Stevens this season. She positions horses well at their fences and she is an excellent judge of pace and that can be crucial here, since these amateur races can often be run at a pace that is too frenetic and consequently benefit those ridden patiently – exactly the sort of ride which Stevens excels at.
Her ride in this, Rapper, has winning form over course and distance this season and ran well over an inadequate trip last time. He’s ideally suited by a hold-up ride, too. Don’t worry about his poor run in last season’s Ultima Chase, since a prominent ride is essential in that race.
The clincher for me is that Stevens is still able to claim 3lb in a race where more seasoned professionals are not. At a big double-figure price, I’m excited about the chance of a combination that I feel could well be overlooked.
FRIDAY
5.30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle: Iroko Price: 12-1
Hopefully by Friday evening you’ll have enough money in your pocket to enjoy a pizza (or the like) while watching the replays of what is sure to be a fascinating week.
I hope I have one for the ‘lucky last’ via the Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero combination, an operation rapidly making a name for themselves in the training ranks with seemingly a particular talent for lining up handicap raids.
This season has seen Iroko take a big step forward from his juvenile form of last year, winning twice at Wetherby. The effort he posted last time looked particularly smart to me. The runner-up Rafferty’s Return is certainly no superstar but he does run to an exceptionally consistent level, making him the ideal horse to use when judging a form line. Iroko pulled a comfortable and ever-widening 14 lengths clear last time suggesting that this stiff track will suit well and that he’s better than his rating of 138.
I’d expect stable conditional Toby Wynne to take the ride. He’s rapidly worked through his claim and, while that might mean he lacks the experience of a few of his fellow conditionals, it will also means he arrives here full of confidence.
CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL: WATCH & READ MORE
🐴 STATS AND TRENDS FOR ALL 28 RACES
✍ HARRY ALLWOOD'S BEST BETS IN THE HANDICAPS
🐴 A SUPER STATISTIC FOR EVERY RACE
📅 I WAS THERE: EIGHT MEMORABLE FESTIVAL DAYS
✍ DAN OVERALL STUDIES THE 9 HANDICAPS
✍ 11 THINGS WE LEARNT WHEN THE WEIGHTS WERE RELEASED
😲 WINNERS WHO HIT 999-1 IN-RUNNING AND EPIC LOSERS
🐴 BETTING OFFERS AND FREE BETS
RACE GUIDES AND STABLE TOURS
✍ CHAMPION HURDLE RUNNER-BY-RUNNER GUIDE
✍ CHAMPION CHASE RUNNER-BY-RUNNER GUIDE
✍ GOLD CUP RUNNER-BY-RUNNER GUIDE
📺 WATCH: GORDON ELLIOTT ON HIS LEADING CONTENDERS
📺 WATCH: WILLIE MULLINS ON HIS LEADING CONTENDERS
📺 WATCH: MARTIN PIPE - RACING GREAT
